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【招商证券】德新交运新股分析:新疆道路客运龙头,兼具民企和国企双重属性

[China Merchants] Analysis of new shares in Dexin Transportation: Xinjiang road passenger transport leader, with the dual attributes of both private and state-owned enterprises

招商證券 ·  Jan 2, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Dexin Transportation is a Xinjiang road passenger transport enterprise, road passenger transport and passenger station operating two-wheel drive performance. With the dual background advantages of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the company is expected to become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions. We predict that the EPS of the company in 1718 will be 0.39 14.9/19.7/16.9XPE and the corresponding issue price will be 5.81 14.9/19.7/16.9XPE.

Xinjiang road passenger transport leader has the dual attributes of both private enterprises and state-owned enterprises. Dexin Transportation, formerly the Xinjiang passenger Transport Department of the Autonomous region's Department of Communications, was restructured into a private enterprise in 2003, forming the largest private shareholder and the second largest state-owned shareholder. Delixi Investment holds 68% of the shares before the issuance of the company, and is the controlling shareholder of the company, and the actual control is Mr. Hu Chengzhong. Xinjiang State Investment holds the first 30% of the company's shares, making it the company's second largest shareholder.

Road passenger transport and passenger station operating two-wheel drive performance. The company is one of the leading road passenger transport companies in Xinjiang, providing domestic and international road passenger transport services and domestic and international bus passenger terminal services. Among them, road passenger transport is the main source of profit for the company, and passenger station operation is the fulcrum and carrier of the company's passenger transport business. In 2015, the total income of the two businesses was 298 million yuan and gross profit was 51 million yuan, accounting for 99% of the company's revenue and 108% of the gross profit.

The operating condition is better than that of the same industry, and it is expected to become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions after listing. Based on the economic and geographical structure of Xinjiang, road transport will still be the most important mode of transportation in the region. Although the company's operating revenue has declined due to the diversion of high-speed rail and fear of violence, thanks to meticulous management, the company's gross profit margin has risen instead of falling, and its profitability is better than that of its peers. With reference to Fulin's merger and acquisition of Chengdu Changyun, Dexin Transportation is expected to use the platform of listed companies to make low-cost mergers and acquisitions in the industry downward period, bigger and stronger.

Fund-raising projects: before this issue, the total share capital of Dexin Transportation is 100 million shares, and this time it is proposed to issue 33.34 million shares and raise 165 million yuan. The funds raised by the company are mainly used for the renewal of natural gas passenger vehicles and the increase of capital for the second-class passenger station project in Wucaiwan, Zhendong Development Zone.

For the first time, the coverage gives a "highly recommended-A" rating. We predict that the EPS of the company in 1718 will be 0.39 14.9/19.7/16.9XPE and the corresponding issue price will be 5.81 14.9/19.7/16.9XPE. At present, the market capitalization of listed road passenger transport enterprises is more than 3 billion, and the coverage gives "strong recommendation-A" for the first time.

Risk hint: high-speed rail diversion, riot and terrorism

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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