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【广证恒生咨询】广弘控股深度报告:股价双重安全边际,土地价值重估+积极转型教育

廣證恆生諮詢 ·  Feb 5, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The increase in executive holdings, inversion of strategic shareholder costs provides a safety cushion: 1) Strategic shareholder cost price inversion: In the context of the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform in Guangdong Province, the introduction of strategic shareholders is expected to speed up market operations and decision-making mechanisms. It is expected that the entry cost price for strategic shareholders should be at least 11 yuan, and the current price is inverted; 2) The cost price of increasing executive holdings of 9.058 yuan/share is close to the current stock price: The new chairman Cai Biao is young and the company's 10 executives increased their holdings of 56.99 million yuan at 9.058 yuan/share cost in July last year, showing that the company's 10 executives promoted the transformation of the company by 56.99 million yuan. determination and confidence; 3) The company is the only listing platform under Guanghong Asset: Guanghong Asset has many business fields and the company is the only listing platform under Guangdong Trading Group, the majority shareholder. The company will fully enjoy Guangdong's acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform and asset securitization, which is expected to give full play to the company's utility as a listing platform. Revaluation of the value of land revitalization and raising the company's value margin: 1) Guangdong's three old reforms are being promoted at an accelerated pace, and shareholders are expected to promote land revitalization: The “industrial reform and commercial” project of Guangdong's “three old” renovation projects made significant progress in September 2016. The government refined the requirements for the “industrial reform and commercial” project for the first time, making it more operable. As the company's reforms advance, the parent company has introduced strategic investors with a background in real estate development, and it is expected that it will cooperate with listed companies to actively revitalize its land for industrial and commercial transactions. 2) Three plots of commercial land have a recorded value of 2-3 billion dollars, and the commercial market value exceeds 10 billion dollars: the company's non-commercial land in Tanzhou, Foshan Nanhai, and Xicun Refrigeration Plant (commercial bustling area on Huanshi West Road) is expected to be converted to commercial land. The recorded value is between 2-3 billion yuan. After the transfer of work and trade, the value exceeded 10 billion dollars. Considering the combination of government collection and storage with joint strategic shareholders, the land value-added effect is remarkable. The plan is to achieve a net profit of 200 million yuan in 2017, and the education extension is expected to accelerate transformation: the company's distribution business is developing steadily, providing a guarantee for the company's epitaxial transformation. According to the company's previous five-year plan, the company plans to achieve net profit of 200 million yuan by 2017. We believe that the company can actively expand and expand the education industry chain with superior resources in education distribution channels, etc., and enjoy the dividends of the upward development of the education industry. Profit forecast and valuation: ① The shareholding cost for strategic shareholders to be introduced in mixed reform should be at least 11 yuan, and the current stock price is inverted; the main executives have completed the increase in holdings, and the cost of increasing their holdings is 9.058 yuan/share, close to the current stock price, and the current price safety margin is high; ② Benefiting from the three major renovation projects in Guangdong, the company's 3 non-commercial land plots are expected to be converted to commercial use at an accelerated pace. Their accounting value is less than 300 million yuan, and the market value exceeds 10 billion yuan. Considering the transformation and development of the strategic shareholders and government collection and storage, etc., will enhance the company's performance, and increase the company's traditional business safety cushion; ③ Profit is expected to stabilize at 100 million yuan Around the same time, according to the five-year plan, net profit of 200 million yuan was achieved in 2017. Currently, there is still a gap of 100 million yuan. Demand for epitaxial transformation is strong, and the company is expected to actively expand the education industry chain. Not considering the performance impact brought about by land revaluation. Assuming that in 2017, the company actively extends the education industry chain. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 1.07, 2.01, and 236 million yuan in 2016-2018. The corresponding stock price valuations are: 58, 35, and 30 x PE, respectively. The company's current market value of around 6 billion yuan is small, and I am optimistic about the room for subsequent growth. The first coverage, with a market capitalization target of 10 billion yuan, still has more than 60% room, and is highly recommended. Risk warning: The frozen goods industry continues to deteriorate, and the three old reforms and extensions fall short of expectations.

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