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【海通证券】金安国纪公司公告点评:业绩弹性得到兑现,看好公司投资价值

海通證券 ·  Jan 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The company drastically increased its 2016 performance range. Jin'an Guoji issued an announcement to revise its 16-year results, drastically increasing the 16-year results. The profit range rose to 325 million to 352 million (the three-quarter report expects net profit of 233 million to 260 million yuan for the whole year), an increase of 500% to 550% over the previous year. The logic of performance flexibility has been implemented. The company's net profit for the first three quarters was 158 million yuan. The fourth quarter surpassed the sum of the previous three quarters, and the monthly profit range ranged from 55 million to 65 million, indicating that the company's performance flexibility was indeed huge, in line with our earlier expectations. The company's performance flexibility mainly comes from the shortage of CCL due to the reduction in upstream foil supply, and the high bargaining power brought about by its own unique structure for small and medium-sized customers, and a significant increase in profitability. Meanwhile, according to the company's three-quarter report, the Q3 company's indicators are clearly improving. The number of accounts receivable turnover days hit a new low in 9 years, and is likely to continue to improve in the fourth quarter. The company also has some leeway in production capacity. The strongest price elasticity combined with the strongest production capacity elasticity means the strongest performance elasticity. We believe that the company's production capacity will naturally increase by 15% to 20% every year, and the suspension of the Lin'an Phase II production line will provide room for further expansion of production. The CCL boom is expected to continue in 2017. The current boom cycle of the copper foil industry chain is mainly due to the sharp increase in demand for lithium battery copper foil, which has led to a partial conversion of standard copper foil, and the continuous reduction in production of standard foil over the past few years, which has caused both lithium battery and standard foil prices to rise sharply. The equipment and infrastructure construction cycle will take at least 1 year and a half, and most of the 17-year production capacity will be released after the third quarter (accounting for about 70% or more). It is expected that the boom will remain high in the first three quarters of the year, and there is room for CCL prices to continue to rise. Give it a buy rating. The company surpassed the sum of the previous three quarters in a single quarter in the fourth quarter, and we expect real performance flexibility in 2017. The estimated net profit for 16/17/18 was 3.38/9.53/956 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 16/17/18 of 0.46/1.31/1.31 yuan, and the target price was 28.82 yuan (corresponding to 22 times PE in '17).

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