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【长城国瑞证券】山河智能:定增过会,助力通航产业布局

長城國瑞證券 ·  Jan 22, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced on January 19, 2017, that the Securities Regulatory Commission's Issuance Review Committee reviewed the company's application for non-public issuance of shares on the 18th. According to the review results of the meeting, the company's current application for non-public stock issuance was approved. Announcement comment: The controlling shareholder escorted the fixed growth plan, demonstrating confidence. This time, the proposed increase of no more than 298 million shares, and the total capital raised is no more than 1.98 billion yuan, all of which will be used to acquire 100% of Canada's shares in AVMAX. Mr. He Qinghua, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company, promised to subscribe for 20% of the current non-public offering of shares, demonstrating the controlling shareholders' confidence in the company's development. The company will definitely increase the number of companies to help lay out the general aviation industry. Before this fixed increase was approved, in order to lock in the deal, the company traded ahead with its own capital and M&A loans. As of the third quarter of 2016, the company's balance ratio reached 65.34%. Currently, the company has acquired 60% of AVMAX's shares and plans to acquire the remaining 40% within the next two years. This fixed increase meeting will help the company improve its financial situation and successfully complete the layout of the general aviation industry. By opening up the entire general aviation industry chain, AVMAX's performance contribution has been remarkable. AVMAX is currently the largest regional aircraft leasing and maintenance company in North America and the second largest regional aircraft leasing company in the world. The acquisition of AVMAX is an important layout of the company in the general aviation industry chain. Through the acquisition, the company's business area will expand to aircraft leasing and aircraft repair and maintenance business for overseas regional airlines. In the future, the company will use AVMAX as an international cooperation platform for the aviation industry, and integrate existing aero engines, light aircraft, and drone businesses through joint ventures and cooperation to create a complete general aviation industry chain covering “manufacturing-leasing-operation-maintenance”. From 2016 to 2017, AVMAX expects to achieve an average annual net profit of about 35.45 million US dollars, with a significant contribution to profit after the announcement. Investment suggestions: Considering AVMAX's consolidated revenue, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders in 2016-2017 to be 79.94 million yuan and 229.33 million yuan respectively. Considering the impact of additional dilution, EPS is 0.11 yuan and 0.22 yuan, corresponding PE is 71.82 times and 35.91 times. Currently, the median P/E value in the construction machinery industry is 71.32 times, and the median P/E value in the aviation equipment industry is 82.40 times. The company's valuation still has some room to increase, and we maintain its “increase in holding” investment rating. Risk warning: The risk of overseas mergers and acquisitions integration; the development of the general aviation industry falls short of expectations. Profit forecast: The company completed the 60% equity settlement procedure for AVMAX on October 1, 2016, and its financial statements were consolidated in October 2016. Therefore, the company's profit forecast is carried out in two steps. The first step is to predict the profit situation of the company's original main business, and the second step is to predict the profit situation of AVMAX after merging. The consolidated ratio of AVMAX in 2016 was 0.15. According to the acquisition agreement, the company continued to acquire 13.33% of the shares this year, with a consolidated ratio of 0.73.

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