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【国海证券】利源精制动态研究:定增项目助力转型,有望再造一个利源

國海證券 ·  Dec 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The fixed increase project has obtained approval, which is expected to create another source of profit. The company's fixed increase was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 7 to invest in rail transit vehicle manufacturing and deep processing projects. The company raised its own funds to start the construction project ahead of schedule in 2015. The deep processing project involved has already been put into operation, and the full production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 tons; the civil construction of the rail vehicle project has basically been completed, and it is expected that a prototype will be released in mid-2017, and it is expected that it will start contributing profits in the second half of the year. The fixed increase project is expected to bring the company operating income of 12.4 billion yuan/year and net profit of about 1.1 billion yuan/year, which is expected to create another profit source. Take advantage of rail traffic to develop in a timely manner and enter the field of vehicle manufacturing in a timely manner. In recent years, investment in the rail transit sector has continued to accelerate, and during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, rail transit is expected to become the highlight of the infrastructure sector. The company promptly entered this field. The fixed increase project involved 1,000 rail vehicles and aluminum alloy wagons, including rail vehicles including 400 EMUs, 400 aluminum alloy city railways, and 200 stainless steel city railways. Through this fixed increase, the company will transform from a simple aluminum profile enterprise to a comprehensive manufacturer of rail vehicles and aluminum profiles, achieve two-wheel drive, and greatly enhance the company's core competitiveness. The company has strong profitability and a high margin of safety. The company's original business is mainly construction profiles, industrial profiles and deep-processed products. The company imports all of its core equipment, has a deep technical accumulation, and positions high-end products. The main customers include well-known enterprises such as Apple, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Mitsui. The gross margin of products is high, remaining above 30% overall, of which the gross margin of deep-processed products exceeds 40%. The company's current market capitalization corresponds to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of only 19 times, and the margin of safety is relatively high. Maintain the buy rating. The company is deeply involved in the field of aluminum processing. It has obvious regional advantages, strong cost control capabilities, gradual optimization of product structure, continuous improvement of the share of deep processing products with high gross margin, and the volume of construction projects has begun. At the same time, the company has been transformed and upgraded to enter the field of rail vehicle manufacturing with higher technical content, and profits are expected to continue to grow rapidly. Without considering the impact of non-public offerings, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.63 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.98 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 19 times, 15 times, and 12 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: the risk that the track planning policy does not meet expectations; the risk of macroeconomic downturn; the risk that the non-public offering will not be successfully completed; the risk of uncertainty about the progress of non-public fund-raising projects; the risk of large fluctuations in aluminum prices.

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