Based on Anhui radiation East China, the location advantage is obvious. The company's actual control is Anhui Energy Group. Based on the long-distance pipeline business, the company actively develops CNG/LNG sales business and city gas business. The supply of natural gas in Anhui Province increased from 1.4 billion cubic meters to 2.3 billion cubic meters in 11-15. Based on Anhui radiation East China, the company has obvious location advantages and is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of natural gas demand in Anhui in the future.
The only long-distance pipeline operator in the province, the upstream gas source is stable, and the downstream demand continues to increase. The company is the only long-distance natural gas pipeline operator in Anhui Province. A total of 18 long-distance natural gas branch lines have been built and put into operation, with a total length of about 1039 kilometers, covering 14 prefectures and cities in Anhui Province. At the same time, the company connects the double gas sources of "gas transmission from west to east" and "Sichuan-east gas transmission", and has established a long-term and stable gas source cooperation relationship. Downstream demand has benefited from urbanization and industrialization in Anhui Province, and has continued to increase. Over the past 16 years, due to the government's reduction of gas prices and pipeline costs, the company's long-distance pipeline business performance has fluctuated. The four long-distance pipeline projects raised this time will continue to improve the company's pipeline network and promote the sustained growth of pipeline transportation business.
The city gas business has gradually entered the harvest period, and the competition of CNG/LNG business has intensified the performance pressure. The company has 13 specific areas of the province gas business franchise, "urban gas + long-distance pipeline" business to play a synergistic effect to enhance the company's overall competitive advantage. Urban fuel business is in its infancy, with a small number of downstream users and high fixed costs, but through the active development of the company, the loss of urban fuel business is expected to gradually narrow, which will become a new driving force for the company's performance growth in the future. At present, the company operates five CNG filling mother stations in the province, and the construction speed of the provincial CNG master station has been accelerated over the past 15 years, and the industry competition has intensified continuously, which has affected the company's CNG business income and gross profit both dropped sharply in the first half of 16 years.
Profit forecast and valuation: we expect the company to achieve operating income of 21.55,26.83 and 3.546 billion yuan and return mother net profit of 0.91,1.08 and 147 million yuan in 16-18 years. The total share capital of the company is 336 million shares, and 84 million tradable shares are issued this time, and the fully diluted earnings per share for 16-18 years are 0.27,0.32 and 0.44 yuan per share. With reference to the industry average and comparable valuation of listed companies, we give the company 20-25 times PE over 17 years, and the reasonable share price range is 6.40-8.0 yuan per share.