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【申万宏源】陕天然气:拟定增募集15亿加码主业,管网覆盖规模稳健扩张

申萬宏源 ·  Dec 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Fixed increases help expand the coverage of the pipeline network, and further strengthen the scale of assets and profitability. The capital raised by the company is mainly used for the Han'an Line and Zhonggui Line gas pipeline project, the Shangluo to Shangnan natural gas pipeline project, the Meixian to Longxian natural gas pipeline project, the Shangluo to Luonan natural gas pipeline project, and the Ankang to Xunyang natural gas pipeline project. After the fund-raising project is put into operation, the company will add more than 488 kilometers of long-distance pipelines to the existing long-distance pipeline of more than 3,000 kilometers, increasing the annual gas transmission capacity from 13.5 billion cubic meters to 14.5 billion cubic meters, and the company's main business revenue and profit level will increase. Natural gas market-based reforms are beneficial to the company's growth, and the impact of the reduction in urban fuel connection fees is limited. Recently, the Oil and Gas Department of the National Energy Administration issued “Opinions on Accelerating the Use of Natural Gas” (Draft for Comments) and proposed that natural gas should gradually be cultivated as the main energy source for China's modern energy system, demonstrating the country's firm determination to promote natural gas consumption. The company's current average pipeline price is about 0.21 yuan/square meter, which is a low level in the country, and there is not much room for pipe transportation prices to drop. Furthermore, the company's main business is the long-distance pipeline business, which accounts for more than 90% of the company's revenue. Even the elimination of urban gas connection fees in the future will have little impact on the company's performance. The profit forecast was raised and the rating remained unchanged: considering the performance growth and share capital dilution brought about by the fixed increase, we kept the company's 16-year performance unchanged at 613 million yuan, and raised the company's 17-18 performance to 628 million yuan and 689 million yuan respectively (613 million yuan, 615 million yuan and 679 million yuan before adjustment, respectively). The basic earnings per share after dilution were 0.48 yuan/share, 0.49 yuan/share, and 0.54 yuan/share, respectively. We believe that as the leader of the Shaanxi pipeline network, the company is expected to benefit from the increase in consumption brought about by falling gas prices and the advancement of natural gas market-based reforms in the future. Consider the increase in pipeline network coverage and the improvement in the balance and liability structure brought about by the company's fixed increase, and maintain the “buy” rating.

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