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【国联证券】富邦股份:内化肥助剂龙头,未来剑指全球

國聯證券 ·  Dec 13, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The leading domestic fertilizer additives industry, with a market share of over 10% for the main product, the company is the leader in the domestic fertilizer additives industry. Currently, the production capacity of various chemical fertilizer additives is 46,000 tons, and the market share in the main product anti-caking agents and wrapping agent segments exceeds 10%. The fund-raising project can basically be put into operation in July next year. At that time, 22,000 tons of anti-caking agents and 12,000 tons of encapsulants will be added. The market share may increase further in the future. The scale of domestic additives exceeds 5 billion, and the industry pattern is expected to sublimate the company's leading position. Although the fertilizer industry as a whole is stabilizing, with the upgrading of the fertilizer product structure, the fertilizer additives industry will continue to develop healthily. In 2015, the scale of domestic fertilizer additives shopping malls exceeded 5 billion. At present, the domestic fertilizer additives industry is generally small, scattered, and chaotic. We believe that as downstream fertilizer companies increase their requirements for integrated services, the company will have a clear advantage as an additive enterprise with comprehensive service capabilities, and the increase in industry concentration is expected to further sublimate the company's leading position. Endogenous innovation projects go hand in hand with industrial merger and acquisition funds to build profit growth points. While consolidating the main business, the company is actively promoting innovative projects such as round granular potash fertilizer, phosphorus-containing wastewater recycling slow-release fertilizer, zinc-rich rice, and plant nutritional supplements to seek profit growth points. At present, the round granular potash fertilizer project has been successfully put into operation, and the first batch of orders have been exported to Canada; the phosphorus-containing wastewater recycling slow release fertilizer and zinc-rich rice projects have entered the demonstration and small trial stage; and the plant nutritional supplement project has also achieved small-scale production and large-scale application testing. In addition to innovative projects, the company has also successively set up Fubon Kyushu and Hi-Tech Fubon Industrial M&A funds to actively reserve and cultivate new strategic development projects. Actively deploying overseas markets, the future sword indicates that in September 2015, the company acquired 55% of Dutch Novick's shares with 18 million euros. The company successfully expanded its business to Europe and Russia, completing the “first step” of global layout. The product line has also expanded from compound fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer additives to the field of urea and nitro fertilizer additives, and the two sides will fully exert synergy in products and markets. For the remaining 45% of shares, the company will acquire 15% every year from 16 to 18 until the acquisition of all shares is completed. Furthermore, through the establishment and two capital increases of Hong Kong Fubon, the company has accelerated the company's international layout and diversified development by using it as an important vehicle for participation in overseas acquisitions. The profit forecast and valuation estimate for 2016-2018 the company's EPS is 0.82, 0.96, and 1.13 yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest stock price PE of 35, 30, and 25, respectively, covering the “recommended” rating for the first time. Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate greatly; downstream demand falls; project progress falls short of expectations

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