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【华泰证券】*ST济柴:大金控厉兵秣马,全牌照蓄势待发

華泰證券 ·  Jan 11, 2017 00:00  · Researches

CNPC Financial Holdings was reorganized and listed, promoting development with full license advantages. ST Jichai's asset restructuring was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. The investment of 75.5 billion yuan of CNPC's financial assets includes ten financial sub-sectors, including banks, insurance, securities, trusts, leasing, and finance companies, and at the same time supporting financing of 19 billion yuan. The full license advantage helped the 100-billion-level financial holding to take off. Subsidiaries are making every effort, and Big Financial Holdings is poised to move forward. 1) CNPC Finance: Industry leader, asset size, revenue, and profit maintained first place in the industry for 13 consecutive years; 2) Bank of Kunlun: steady development of performance, capital profit margin over 15% from January to May 2016, non-performing rate of 1.79% on May 31, 2016; 3) Kunlun Financial Leasing: scarce licenses, capital increase of 1.1 billion yuan to help development; 4) Shandong Trust+Kunlun Trust: rapid performance growth rate and strong active management ability; 5) Insurance sector: life insurance+financial insurance+insurance broker+self-insurance differential management, complements group owners; 6) Other: The addition of Chinese debt is the first major in China A bond credit promotion agency, Bank of China International has a balanced income structure and stable performance. In the future, the company will have a license for the entire financial industry, take advantage of CNPC's resource advantages, and the big financial control platform is poised to go. Bank insurance license feast, listing to create a collaborative ecosystem. The financial control platform has rich financial resources, can achieve effective connections between financial and industrial resources, more diversified channels for business cooperation, and timely sharing of information resources, greatly reducing the search and negotiation costs generated in transactions between business sectors. Among the many financial licenses, the value of the company's banking, securities, and insurance licenses will gradually become apparent. At the same time, listing helps companies fully connect with the capital market, raise the level of marketization of enterprise operations, use listing platforms to broaden financing channels, consolidate the capital base, build an ecosystem of industry-finance collaboration and integration, and enhance the overall competitiveness of enterprises. Shareholder resources+fully licensed financial control+small actual circulation market were covered for the first time and were given an increase in holdings rating. The company's net profit is estimated at 68/70/76 billion yuan from 2016 to 2018, corresponding to EPS of 0.76/0.77/0.84 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company relies on CNPC to play a synergistic role, the continued profit of financial assets is guaranteed; the lockdown period for purchasing assets and raising supporting capital through this restructuring is 3 years; the market value of the company's circulation market is 6.7 billion yuan; the actual market value of the circulation market is only 2.7 billion yuan excluding 60% of the majority shareholders' holdings. The actual circulation market value is only 2.7 billion yuan. The actual circulation market value is small and flexible, making it a popular target for capital. Combining the company's shareholder resources and the small actual circulation market, the company was given a reasonable premium. It is believed that the company's reasonable valuation in 2017 is about 31-33 times PE. It is predicted that the company's net profit in 2017 will be 7 billion yuan, the total share capital after this increase will be 9.03 billion shares, and the target price for 2017 is 24-26 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: Business coordination is not as good as expected, risk of market fluctuations, and failure of transformation.

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