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【申万宏源】楚天高速:转型持续推行,三木价值尚未反应,维持买入评级

申萬宏源 ·  Dec 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The transformation is progressing steadily, and Miki is expected to be merged into the report for the first quarter of '17. Chutian Expressway announced the acquisition of 100% of Miki Smart's shares in July. It was filed and approved by the Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission on August 19, accepted by the Securities Regulatory Commission on September 9, received feedback from the Securities Regulatory Commission on September 30, and passed the review by the Securities Regulatory Commission on November 26. As a benchmark enterprise for state-owned enterprise reform, the path of transformation is very smooth. We expect 17Q1 Miki Smart to officially enter Chutian Express Report, increasing profits for 17 years. The high-speed sector still has room for growth of around 200 million. The core assets of the Chutian Expressway mainly include three sections of the expressway, including the Hanyi section of the Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway, the Dazhu Expressway, and the Huangxian section of the Wuhan Urban Ring Expressway. Although Hanyi Road, the main source of profit, is quite mature, and overall growth is slow, Dasui and Huangxian are all guillotine roads, and are currently in a state of loss, losing money of around 200 million each year. With the construction of the two road sections, it is expected that break-even balance will be achieved within 1-2 years after opening in the next 3 years, and profits in the high-speed sector still have room for 40% growth. ODM+ “cash cow”, connecting capital and resources to achieve collaboration. Miki Intelligence is a leading domestic ODM company, ranked 10-15 in the industry. It mainly sells mobile phones/tablets to brands in Southeast Asia such as Indonesia and India. According to test preparation, in 2016, the company will achieve revenue of 1.5 billion dollars, profit of about 100 million units, and achieve a shipment volume of about 6 million units. After the Chutian graft, we believe that there are at least two aspects of synergy: on the one hand, Miki Intelligence's advantage lies in supply chain management, hardware design, etc., but the core disadvantage is that it is insufficient capital, and supply chain financing cannot support extremely long account periods for high-quality Indian and domestic customers, so it is difficult to increase the scale. In the next 3-5 years, hardware manufacturers in the domestic market will face a scuffle, and Miki is expected to win with capital advantages; 2. After the acquisition is completed, Miki Intelligence will become a fully market-based “state-owned company” and is expected to further cooperate with state-owned enterprises. Resources, especially the connection between resources of state-owned enterprises in Hubei Province, such as investment in smart high-speed equipment, etc., have a lot of room for imagination. With transformation, mixed reform, and employee shareholding, Chutian has become a benchmark for state-owned enterprise reform. There are two highlights in this acquisition: On the one hand, Chutian Expressway's transformation breaks out of the financial, real estate, photovoltaic, environmental protection and other industries concentrated on rapid transformation in the past, innovatively introduced Miki Intelligence, a private capital in the electronics sector, and achieved mixed ownership reform at the same time, and is at the forefront of the reform; on the other hand, in the context of state-owned enterprise reform, Chutian Expressway's acquisition of innovative management shareholding is the only highway enterprise that has completed management shareholding. While operating risks have increased, management incentives have been improved, and the market-based atmosphere and performance have been stronger. Further breakthroughs are expected. Valuation is still at the center of high speed, and Miki's value has yet to respond, maintaining the buying rating. Considering that Miki will be merged into the Chutian Report in 2016, we expect the overall profit will probably reach 500 million or more. Based on 500 million, the current PE valuation level is around 20X, which is at the center of the valuation of high-speed enterprises below 10 billion. We believe that the market has yet to reflect the value of Miki Intelligence and the margin for profit growth brought about by Miki's integration in the future, so even though the current stock price hit a short-term high, we are still maintaining our buy rating. We maintain our profit forecast. From 2016 to 2018, Chutian Expressway's revenue is estimated to be 2,810 billion yuan, 3.444 billion yuan, and 3.499 billion yuan respectively, with net profit of 430 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 520 million yuan respectively. The diluted EPS is 0.25 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.30 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 25 times, 23 times, and 21 times, respectively, maintaining the purchase rating.

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