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【方正证券】利源精制:预期差巨大的高铁整车制造集成商

方正證券 ·  Dec 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Always pursue product excellence and continuously improve technical level. Unlike ordinary aluminum profile companies, the company continuously promotes technological upgrading and adjusts product structure through continuous top-level equipment and R&D investment. The company's overall gross margin has increased from 14.13% in 2009 to 33.26% at present, far exceeding the industry average by about 10%. The company has achieved world-class and top domestic products in many fields, such as aluminum alloy seamless transformers, Apple laptop cases, solar brackets, and rail transit aluminum sheets, etc., with high technology content and high added value. The Shenyang rail transit vehicle manufacturing integration project caused the biggest drop in expectations. The estimated profit of the Shenyang fixed increase project is more than 2 times that of the company's current profit. We believe that the probability of success of this fixed increase project is high, and it is hoped that it will become China's second rail transit vehicle manufacturer after CRRC, and achieve a fourth transformation. Currently, the market has great doubts about whether private companies can become vehicle manufacturing integrators. The reaction is that the current stock price reflects that the company's average valuation continues to remain around 15 times PE. Comparing similar aluminum processing enterprises horizontally, the company's valuation is clearly lower. Mitsui Bussan Metals provides key support for vehicle manufacturing: Mitsui Bussan Metals is responsible for providing Japan Railway vehicle manufacturing technicians (manufacturing technology, design, automation systems, etc.) and is responsible for global vehicle sales. Mitsui Bussan Metals is a subsidiary of Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Mitsui & Co. is the core supplier of the CRH380 “central system”: vehicle electric traction system and air brake system. Its subsidiaries include Toshiba, Toyota, Sony, etc. It took the lead in organizing the construction of the Taiwan Roundabout High Speed Rail. The agreement signed between Mitsui and Liyuan for the Shenyang project stipulates that Mitsui will provide equipment, technology, and personnel for the introduction of equipment, technology, and personnel, while also assisting in future sales of Liyuan vehicles. Shenyang and Liaoning undertook to procure products for the project. According to the agreement signed by the two parties, the People's Government of Shenbei New District of Shenyang City promised to give priority to the use of the company's products for urban rail transit in all regions of Liaoning Province and Shenyang City after delivery, under the same quality and price. Investment advice: Assuming that the company completes additional dilution in 2017, we expect the company's net profit for 2016-2018 to be 523 million, 680 million, and 967 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 20.90, 21.82, and 15.36, respectively. Considering the company's entry into the blue ocean market of rail transit vehicle business, we gave it a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: Production of the new project falls short of expectations, and sales fall short of expectations.

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