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【财富证券】山河智能:行业持续回暖,大股东增持显信心

財富證券 ·  Nov 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Demonstrating confidence, the majority shareholders increased their holdings by 37.65 million shares. On November 17, Mr. He Qinghua, the controlling shareholder of the company, transferred 37.65 million shares of the company held by Beijing Qianshi Chuangfu Capital Management Co., Ltd. through the “Beijing Qianshi Chuangfu Capital Management Co., Ltd. - Minsheng Bank - Huaxin International Trust - No. 82 Securities Investment Pooled Fund Trust Plan” through a major transaction on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. This increase in shares accounts for 4.98% of the company's total share capital. The average transaction price is 9.6 yuan/share, and the transaction amount is 361 million yuan. After the increase in holdings, Mr. He Qinghua's shareholding ratio increased to 26.96%. In addition to his previous promise to subscribe for 20% of the 2015 non-public shares, it shows the controlling shareholders' confidence in the company's long-term development. The industry picked up, and excavator sales rose sharply year on year in October. According to data from the Construction Machinery Association, in October of this year, China sold 5,816 excavators, up 71.4% year on year, and the cumulative sales volume of excavators from January to October was 56,746 units, up 16.9% year on year. Sales of other construction machinery also showed an upward trend. Affected by rising demand in infrastructure, real estate and other industries, the number of hours of construction machinery start-up and utilization and sales both increased in the first October of this year. Despite the introduction of real estate regulation policies in the second half of the year, investment in infrastructure such as railways, highways, water conservancy, hydropower, etc. is still strong, and the boom is expected to continue in the short term. In terms of overseas markets, the company added subsidiaries in Belgium, Indonesia, etc., expanded its revenue scale, and maintained a positive growth trend in the Korean market. In the first half of this year, the company's overseas revenue increased 19.2% year-on-year, and gross margin reached 37.4%, making it the market area with the highest gross margin of the company. Overseas development, AVMAX's combined performance is the icing on the cake. The company plans to acquire Canadian aviation leasing company AVMAX for $1,979 million. On June 29 of this year, the company completed the first phase of AVMAX's 49% share settlement, and completed the second phase of 11% share settlement on September 30. Currently, the company holds 60% of the shares, and the remaining 40% of the shares will be settled in three installments from 2016 to 2018. Since October of this year, AVMAX has been included in the scope of consolidated statements. From September 2015 to June 2016, AVMAX achieved revenue of 737 million yuan, achieved net profit of 210 million yuan to mother, and will increase the company's performance later. China Railway Mountain River lays out urban underground projects. In September of this year, the company invested 25 million yuan to establish China Railway Shanhe Engineering Equipment Co., Ltd. in a joint venture with China Railway Equipment and China Railway Fifth Bureau, with a registered capital of 50 million yuan, and the company held 50% of the shares. The partner China Railway Equipment is a manufacturer of shield machines and hard rock tunneling machines and is in a leading position in the country, and China Railway Fifth Bureau has deep technical accumulation in subway construction and underground pipe network construction. The company's cooperation with these two parties is conducive to expanding market channels and opening up channels for the company to enter underground engineering markets such as rail transit and underground pipe galleries. Profit forecast. Excluding additional issuance and consolidation factors, the company's revenue in 2016-2018 is estimated at 1.65 billion yuan, 1.97 billion yuan, and 2.57 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 59 million, 98 million, and 153 million yuan, respectively. EPS is 0.08 yuan/share, 0.13 yuan/share, and 0.2 yuan/share, respectively. Considering additional issuance and consolidation factors, the company's net profit in 2016-2018 is expected to be 88 million, 280 million, and 390 million. EPS is 0.12 yuan/share, 0.26 yuan/share, and 0.37 yuan/share, respectively, and PE is 85 times, 37 times, and 27 times, respectively. The company's operations are steady and improving, and the quality of AVMAX assets is excellent. Based on the 2017 results after additional issuance and consolidation, the reasonable valuation range is 45-50 times, and the reasonable price range is 11.7-13 yuan, giving it a “recommended” rating. Risk warning. Investment in fixed assets declined, and international market development fell short of expectations.

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