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【招商证券】新力金融:依托供销社背景,支付、金控协同发展

招商證券 ·  Dec 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

We expect the company's net profit for 2016-2018 to be 1.8/46/ 550 million respectively, corresponding to 25x17PE/2.3x17PB after issuing shares. The renewal of the license of Haike Finance has been completed, and the acquisition and fixed increase are expected to pass early next year. Stock price catalysis is approaching. Currently, the stock price is 10% lower than the increase in shareholders' holdings in November, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” rating. Relying on the background of the Anhui Supply and Marketing Agency, we have built a financial control platform with the characteristics of the Three Farmers. Xinli Financial's financial control business revolves around the existing supply and marketing agency system, opens up a model of acquaintance finance, and solves the problem of asymmetry in credit information between the commercial community and the rural society of acquaintances. Unlike social loans, P2P, and pawnbroking companies that only provide capital loans, companies rely on the real economy's industrial chain to create a closed loop, and the risk is relatively small. According to profit commitments, the net profit attributable part of the financial holdings to listed companies in 2016-2017 was 184 million and 213 million yuan, respectively. Haike Finance is at the top of the ranking, and the synergy between supply and marketing agencies, financial control, and payment is strong. The layout of Haike Finance is dominated by second- and third-tier cities. Similar 2B customers, such as small and micro merchants in the commercial sector, account for the vast majority, creating misplaced competition with the 2C customer layout of giants such as Alipay and Tenpay. In addition to non-marketable and non-genuine third-party payment companies such as the UnionPay system, Alipay, and Wealth Connect, Haike Finance is in the top three. The average monthly transaction volume has risen from 40 billion in January-July of this year to around 60 billion at present, and the transaction flow for the whole of next year will exceed 1 trillion yuan. In addition to Haike Rongtong's own expansion, supply and marketing agencies, financial control, and payment can form a synergistic effect: on the one hand, the introduction of transaction flows by Anhui supply and marketing cooperatives can contribute about 500 billion dollars in transaction growth, and full implementation is expected to take 1-2 years; on the other hand, Xinli Finance's original microfinance, P2P and other businesses can be seamlessly connected with payments and jointly develop POS loan services, with a potential profit margin of over 100 million yuan. The prospects for the three fixed increase fund-raising projects are strongly promising, and resources cannot be replicated. 1) Shandong logistics project: Shandong is a major logistics province, leading from north to south, and is in a key position in transportation. Logistics is generally done by cash on delivery. Currently, some traditional methods are still used. Haike Rongtong cooperates with the local government to embed billing and settlement systems, which will greatly share the logistics market in Shandong; 2) China Resources MIS Project: Cooperate with China Resources Wanjia to optimize POS channels for shopping malls and supermarkets to provide other comprehensive supporting services such as centralized cashiers, account splitting, and value-added income; 3) Hebei “Village Connect” project: Currently, Haike Rongtong has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hebei Bangnong, mainly for more than 14,000 rural supermarkets covered by the Hebei “Village Connect” project, POS terminals for agricultural sites Installation, platform operation and maintenance, and development, convenient payment, agricultural withdrawal assistance, POS loan services, etc. Risk warning: Acquisitions and targeted growth fell short of expectations.

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