Main points of investment:
Event: the company announced the acquisition of a 50% stake in Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Transportation Company (hereinafter referred to as "Transportation Company") on December 9, with a transaction consideration of US $100.3 million. In 2015, the transportation company had total assets of US $113.331 million, total revenue of US $67.029 million and net profit of US $18.798 million.
The acquisition of assets transportation business integration, stable profitability. The main business of the transportation company is the transportation of oil and liquefied petroleum gas, tank leasing and entrusted storage services. the company has more than 3000 tankers, mainly oil tankers and liquefied petroleum gas tankers. It is one of the largest rental companies for transport tankers in Kazakhstan. The transportation company owns 100% equity of PremiumOilTransLLP (POT), ErtysServiceLLP (ES), KazykurtSouthLLP (KS) and BatysPetroleumLLP (BP) and 70% of DTI-AORLLP (DTI), of which POT is mainly engaged in freight forwarding and cargo receiving and dispatching services; ES, KS and BP are mainly engaged in steam cleaning and daily maintenance services for transport tanks; DTI is mainly engaged in railway construction and operation and maintenance. The transportation company adopts the way of bargaining with individual customers to determine the lease price, and has stable business income and good profitability through good cooperation with the three major refining and chemical manufacturers in Kazakhstan.
Performance promises to maintain growth, and asset synergy can be expected. TCO, the counterparty of the transportation company, has made a performance commitment that the net profit of the transportation company in 16-18 years will not be lower than that of the previous year. Based on the 15-year net profit of 18.798 million US dollars, it will contribute at least 60 million yuan to the net profit of the listed company every year. Intercontinental Oil and Gas has now laid out two major oil fields, Mateng and Keshan, in Kazakhstan. This asset acquisition will promote the synergy of the three, further expand the downstream customer resources, and interact with the company's crude oil exploitation and trading business. reduce the cost of crude oil sales and increase performance.
The price of crude oil has rebounded strongly, and the company has benefited most from the rise in oil prices. At present, an agreement has been reached between OPEC and Russia to reduce production. We expect crude oil prices to hold steady at the $50 / barrel mark and maintain a volatile upward trend in the long run. Under the current production capacity, after the successful acquisition of Banks, the company will achieve an annual output of 1.85 million tons of crude oil, which is one of the most beneficial elastic targets for the upward price of oil. At the same time, there is still much room for capacity expansion in the company's existing and soon-to-be-acquired assets, and the performance flexibility of rising oil prices may be further improved, benefiting more from the upward valuation of oil prices and investment advice: we raise our profit forecast. The company's 16-18 net profit is expected to be 1.64,4.23 and 985 million yuan (1.04,3.63 and 925 million yuan respectively before adjustment). Mainly due to the increase in net profit of 60 million yuan brought about by the acquisition of assets), taking into account the completion of 17 years of additional issuance corresponding to the total share capital of 3.159 billion shares, the company's earnings per share in 16-18 years were 0.07,0.13,0.31 yuan per share, using the DCF valuation method to get a value of 11.1 yuan per share, which has 20% room to rise relative to the current stock price and maintain the "buy" rating.