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【兴业证券】天海投资:收购即将成功,未来前景广阔

興業證券 ·  Dec 5, 2016 03:00  · Researches

After 10 months, the acquisition is about to be successful. The company began suspending trading on February 6, 2016; a major asset purchase and related transaction report was announced on July 5, and plans to acquire 100% of Ingram Micro's shares by cash payment for about US$6.09 billion; it was announced on December 4 that delivery work has begun, and the delivery is expected to be completed in about 1 day. The entire acquisition has taken 10 months and is about to be successful. After the acquisition is completed, Ingram Micro will delist from the New York Stock Exchange and become a holding subsidiary of Tianhai Investment (Tianhai Investment holds 68.5% of the shares; the other shareholder is Guohua Life). It is expected that after the acquisition is completed, HNA Group will use its domestic resources and management experience to help Ingram Micro develop new growth points. Taking into account the situation of Ingram Micro and HNA, we think the future may have the following highlights: 1. Ingram Micro entered the Chinese market in 1997, but its main markets are concentrated in Europe and America, and its localization experience is relatively insufficient. Ingram Micro can use HNA Group's domestic resources and experience to expand the Chinese market; at the same time, Ingram Micro's rich overseas operation experience, huge dealer resources, and mature global supply chain system can help Chinese IT companies “go global” and achieve a win-win situation. 2. Ingram Micro is the main cloud service provider, integrating nearly 5,000 cloud service functions from about 2,000 vendors to promote the cloud service market to 17 countries around the world, covering most service fields. Due to security concerns, Ingram Micro's cloud services have so far failed to enter the Chinese market. In the future, Tianhai Investment may bring Yingmai's advanced cloud services to the Chinese market. 3. Ingram Micro is the world's leading IT supply chain management company, but in the past, it did not focus on developing supply chain finance business. Small and medium-sized enterprises in China often face the problem of financing difficulties. The supply chain finance business has good prospects and huge space for domestic development. HNA Group has a full financial license, which can help Yingmai develop supply chain finance business domestically. According to the acquisition plan, Tianhai invested 6 billion US dollars to acquire Ingram Micro, of which 231 million US dollars was compensation for part of the equity incentive plan. Equity incentives for Ingram Micro's management will help Ingram Micro's original business achieve better growth. Valuation and ratings. Assuming that Yingmai achieved net profit of 360 to 450 million US dollars in 17-18, at an exchange rate of 6.8, which is equivalent to Tianhai's investment of 11.3 billion yuan and 1.55 billion yuan in 17/18, taking into account the financial expenses of the acquisition and minority shareholders' rights. In addition, it is estimated that Tianhai Investment's Sino Joint Guarantee Shares can contribute 120 million yuan to net profit every year. Tianhai is expected to invest in EPS of 0.43 and 0.58 yuan in 17-18, corresponding to PE of 23.7 or 17.6 times in 17-18, maintaining the “gain” rating. The company's valuation is cheap, and the future prospects are broad, and investors will continue to recommend a strategic layout. Risk warning. IT demand fell sharply, and business development in China fell short of expectations

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