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【申万宏源】新华都:三季度业绩增长318.83%符合预期,电商代运营业务大概率超预期,维持“买入”评级

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Revenue for the first three quarters of 2016 increased 1.69% year on year, and net profit from the mother increased by 315.40% year on year, in line with our expectations. In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, net profit of 212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 315.40%, and EPS of 0.32 yuan, of which the third quarter achieved single-quarter revenue of 1,608 million yuan, an increase of 1.44% year-on-year; net profit of 163 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 318.83%, in line with our expectations. The main reason for the sharp increase in the company's net profit to the parent company is that the company transferred 19.5% of the shares of Changsha Zhongfan Real Estate Company and received an investment income of 189 million yuan. Excluding the impact of this one-time investment income, the company's net profit for the first three quarters was 70.25 million yuan, and the loss for the same period last year was 98.37 million yuan. The main reason for the sharp decline in the company's performance after deducting non-recurring profits and losses this year was due to the reversal in the performance of the main supermarket business and the additional profit contributions of the three e-commerce agency operators newly included in the merger. The e-commerce agency business has developed rapidly, and its operations and performance have exceeded expectations. The company's e-commerce agency operation team has excellent management capabilities. After cooperating with Xinhuadu, business development progressed rapidly. Up to now, customers newly signed cooperation agreements this year include China Resources Yibao, Green Arrow, Mars, and Tsingtao Brewery. Apart from Tsingtao Brewery, which cooperates in a distribution model, other brands have started with the traditional agency operation model. For large brands that have already cooperated with customized products, deep binding through the establishment of brand cooperation companies can minimize the possibility of being replaced by brands or other proxy operators; at the same time, gross profit in the production of customized products can be earned through year-end dividends. The company's operating level far exceeded market expectations. Furthermore, we expect the annual net profit of the company's e-commerce agency business to be close to 100 million yuan, far exceeding expectations of 65 million yuan. The closure of loss-making stores and supply chain integration led to a significant increase in the performance of the main business. In 2015, the company closed 14 loss-making stores with a total loss of 152 million yuan, getting rid of the heavy burden of operations and at the same time refocusing on the Fujian and Jiangxi markets. The business format changed from hypermarkets to shopping centers and community lifestyle supermarkets. Furthermore, through supply chain integration, supermarkets use fresh products to drive popularity, enhance product competitiveness, and greatly increase the profitability of the company's main business. Driven by improvements in main business and net profit from e-commerce agency operations, the company's gross margin reached a record high of 21.94% in the third quarter, while the expense ratio for the period fell 1.32% year on year. We judge that the company's main business performance in 2016 will reach an inflection point. Firmly optimistic about e-commerce agency operations, and maintain profit forecasts and purchase ratings. We are firmly optimistic about the e-commerce agency business expanded by the company, and have created an original “agency operation service - Internet omni-channel sales - C2B customized product” to build a complete commercial closed loop. The core team is from brand marketing, strong execution, and the speed of performance and customer expansion has exceeded expectations. In the main supermarket business, major loss-making stores were closed last year, and through supply chain integration to drive popularity through fresh products, performance was improved. Maintaining the profit forecast, the company's EPS for 2016-2018 is expected to be 0.53, 0.37, and 0.44 yuan respectively, and 21X/30X/26X corresponding to the latest stock price of 16-18PE, respectively, maintaining the buying rating.

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