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【西南证券】莱美药业:特色专科药占比上升,收入结构持续优化

西南證券 ·  Oct 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Financial Overview: The company's operating income, net profit, and net profit after deducting non-net profit for the first three quarters of 2016 were about 690 million yuan, 47 million yuan, and 36 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.34%, 233%, and 250% respectively; the 2016 Q3 company's operating income, net profit, and net profit after deducting non-net profit were about 240 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and 018 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of -1.5%, 381%, and 895% respectively. The share of specialty drugs is rising, and the revenue structure continues to be optimized. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2016 was 690 million yuan, an increase of about 0.34% over the previous year. Among them, revenue from the large infusion business fell by about 38% year on year. The main reason is that the adjustment progress of the large infusion business is lower than expected. We are still optimistic about the positive impact of new products such as seamless soft bags and drug mixers on the revenue growth of the company's large infusion business. Other business sectors, such as pharmaceutical distribution, declined by about 64% due to the decline in agent products. Revenue from specialty specialty drugs increased by about 65% year-on-year during the period, and the share of revenue increased by more than 10 percentage points. The main reason is that the company has increased its marketing efforts for key varieties and improved the incentive mechanism for the sales team, which has led to an increase in sales of core varieties such as Esso, Ultrins, and nanocarbon. The company's non-net profit for the first three quarters of 2016 was about 36 million yuan, an increase of about 250% over the previous year. The main reason is that the company's overall gross margin was about 40%, an increase of about 5.3 percentage points over the previous year due to changes in product structure. Judging from the situation in a single quarter, the year-on-year increases in revenue and net profit in the 2016-Q3 period were about -1.5% and 895% respectively. The company's deducted non-net profit improved significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, mainly due to continued growth in sales of core specialty drugs. We believe that although the growth rate on the revenue side of the company was low in the first three quarters, its product structure has been optimized, and the decline in Q3 revenue has also narrowed markedly. As a result of steady revenue growth and continuous structural adjustments, it is estimated that high-margin specialty drug revenue has increased from 20% to more than 30%, and the company's overall profitability has increased dramatically. Strengthen sales and promotion of key varieties while actively laying out new profitable areas. 1) Sales of major varieties of esomeprazole and urtilins are progressing steadily, actively participating in tenders in various provinces, while speeding up hospital development progress and steadily increasing market share; 2) Key varieties of nanocarbon are currently used in thyroid and gastric organ surgery, and indications such as bowel surgery will be expanded one after another later, and the market space may exceed 500 million yuan. As the company strengthens the market and academic promotion of this product, its high growth may continue; 3) Actively intervene in the field of medical services. Using nanocarbon as an entry point, it is proposed to build a comprehensive service system for full-cycle medical care and health management around thyroid patients, and at the same time increase investment in precision medicine, telemedicine, etc., to form a unique competitive advantage; 4) Actively develop a new profit layout: a. The ARGOS project is progressing steadily. We expect commercialization in 2018, which will help the company to subscribe to Athenex, Inc. convertible bonds for 10 million US dollars; b. Laimei Hong Kong will subscribe to Athenex, Inc. convertible bonds for 10 million US dollars, which is conducive to the company's future strategic partnership with Athenex and actively lay out advanced medical treatment abroad technology. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect earnings per share for 2016-2018 to be 0.11 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.26 yuan (the original forecast for 2016-2018 earnings per share was 0.14 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.26 yuan respectively; the main reason for the reduction was that the profit of the large infusion sector was lower than expected), and the corresponding price-earnings ratios were 79 times, 45 times, and 33 times. Since the company's parenteral nutrition and specialty drugs are growing steadily, and Esso and Ultilin have gradually entered the sales volume stage, the successive placement of mixers, ARGOS projects, and investment in Chongqing Xindong will all help the company's long-term performance growth and maintain its “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1) New product sales volume may fall short of expectations; 2) Tender price reduction may exceed expectations.

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