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【光大证券】智光电气电力设备新能源:售电和用户侧服务积累助力拓展增量配电网市场

光大證券 ·  Nov 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Entering the electricity service market, the first-mover advantage and sharing model guarantee the rapid development of the electricity service market space to reach more than 300 billion dollars. The company has a clear profit path to achieve a win-win situation with users through intensive operation and maintenance. In the future, the “1+N” model based on the operation and maintenance of power facilities will further enhance user stickiness while digging deeper into the potential value of users. The company was the first to launch an electricity service layout. Through a practical business model and a competitive equity incentive mechanism, the company attracted talents and professional teams within the power grid to join in jointly developing the electricity service business, and was able to achieve rapid offsite replication. The electricity sales business has opened up; in the first half of the year, the total amount of electricity bidded for by major power management users reached 24.7 million kilowatts. After obtaining the second batch of electricity sales transaction seats approved by the Guangdong Provincial Economic and Credit Commission in June, the situation opened up in the Guangdong electricity auction in July. It won a bid of 25.2 million kilowatts in August, and a further sharp increase in September, winning 33 million kilowatts of electricity. We believe that the key to developing the electricity sales business is customer resources. The continuous promotion of the company's electricity consumption services will ensure the rapid development of the electricity sales business. At the same time, customers in the electricity sales business can also be converted into electricity service customers, and the synergy effect is remarkable. In October, the “Administrative Measures on Entry and Exit of Electricity Sales Companies” was introduced. After the management methods of electricity sales companies are clarified at the policy level, the electricity sales market space will explode. The liberalization of the blue ocean market for incremental distribution grid operations According to the “Administrative Measures for the Orderly Release of Distribution Grid Business”, power supply business licenses, a key factor limiting the operation of distribution networks by enterprises outside the power grid, will no longer be an obstacle. The company already has a layout in the operation of incremental distribution networks, and has set up a joint venture with Guangxi Rongkai (the real estate owner of Liuzhou Automobile City Electroplating Industrial Park) to build and operate the park distribution network. The comprehensive advantages of the company's electricity sales and user-side operation and maintenance services will be fully exploited in the operation of incremental distribution networks. While the operation obtains electricity charges for distribution, it will drive the company's operation and maintenance services, cable and equipment sales, and at the same time expand its electricity sales business. The target price remains the same. The purchase evaluation estimates that the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.46 yuan, 0.62 yuan, and 0.81 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 44, 32, and 24 times, respectively. The target price is 25 yuan, which corresponds to PE in 2017, which is 40 times higher, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning: The expansion of the company's electricity service business customers did not meet expectations; contract energy management customers experienced business risks, leading to a decrease in energy saving revenue sharing; and electricity sales business expansion was slow due to lower than expected electricity improvements.

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