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【招商证券】阳光照明:盈利能力持续改善推动业绩高增长

招商證券 ·  Oct 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Affected by the cycle, the company's revenue growth rate in a single quarter was average, but profitability increased significantly. Gross margin increased by 3.92 percentage points year over year, and there was still a 24% increase after deduction. In the long run, the company fully benefits from increased industry concentration, widening revenue cost differences, and the favorable devaluation of the RMB. Coupled with the company's increased incentives and continued improvement in efficiency, profits are expected to maintain rapid growth. Increased profitability drives high profit growth. The company achieved revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in January-September, up 4.15% year on year; net profit attributable to parent company was 355 million yuan, up 31.4% year on year; net profit attributable to mother in Q3 was 137 million yuan, up 49.72% year on year. Revenue for the single quarter was slightly lower than expected, and increased profitability drove profits to continue to grow rapidly. The cycle affected the revenue growth rate in a single quarter, and the revenue cost gap widened and gross margin increased significantly. The lighting industry is relatively mature, maintaining a growth rate of 10-20%, and a fluctuation cycle of about 1 year. Since Q3 last year, it has entered a market adjustment cycle. The operation of overseas customers such as Lowe's has affected the company's Q3 revenue growth rate, and it is expected that positive growth will gradually resume in Q4. In terms of profit, the decline in the price of LED light sources continued to be higher than that of lamps, etc., the revenue cost price gap continued to widen, and gross margin increased by 3.92 percentage points, driving a marked increase in profit. Furthermore, traditional light sources were drastically reduced by 161 million yuan in value during the same period last year, but the combined positive contribution of 150 million yuan in foreign exchange and non-operating income was 150 million yuan, and net profit in Q3 grew by 24% after deduction. Concentration continues to increase, and industry leaders have fully benefited. The share of Chinese LED companies in global revenue increased from 5% in 2009 to around 25% in 2015. In recent years, the industry has entered a phase of accelerated integration, suppliers have been drastically reduced, and the share of leading companies represented by the company is expected to continue to increase. The company is expected to account for about 3% of the global lighting market in 2016, and gradually increase to 5-8% in the next 3-5 years. The focus is on expanding overseas channels to increase revenue space, and mixed reform of subsidiaries to improve operating efficiency. The company is actively expanding overseas sales channels and has successively set up companies in Dallas, Australia, Germany, France, etc., and has expanded more than 60 new customers in foreign markets to ensure the company's future growth. Furthermore, the company increased management incentives, increased management remuneration by 70% in the first half of the year, and achieved management shareholding in subsidiaries, which is expected to significantly improve operating efficiency, and profit growth may continue to be better than revenue growth. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. We maintain our 16-18 net profit forecast of 487/6.3/805 million yuan, corresponding to 0.34/0.43/0.55 yuan. RMB once again entered a rapid depreciation range in Q4, and there is still a possibility that profits will exceed expectations during the year. Currently, the valuation is low, with a target price of 9.18-10.2 yuan, corresponding to 27-30 times PE in 16 years, maintaining a highly recommended -A rating. Risk warning: Prices have dropped sharply, and business expansion has fallen short of expectations.

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