The performance in the fourth quarter is expected to improve to a certain extent, and there is a greater probability of decline in performance throughout the year: the company's revenue and profits dropped significantly in the first three quarters, on the one hand, due to the slowing down of the overall development speed of the coal chemical industry and the reduction in the number of contracted projects, on the other hand, affected by the company's project implementation progress and equipment delivery cycle. We believe that the impact of the equipment delivery cycle in the fourth quarter is eliminated, and the company's performance is expected to be improved to a certain extent, but throughout the year, due to the hindered development of the coal chemical industry as a whole, the company's revenue and profits will decline to a certain extent compared with the same period last year.
The first Aerospace Institute is the key to realizing the group's asset securitization, and there is huge room for integration: by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group plans that the asset securitization rate will reach 45% (only 15% at the end of 15 years). If you want to achieve this goal, the super-profitable asset securitization of Aerospace first Institute is the key. As the strongest unit responsible for the research, design, trial production, test and production of missile weapons and carrier rockets in China, the first Aerospace Institute has strong profitability. The group's website has said that it has estimated revenue of 42.7 billion yuan in 2015 and a total profit of 2.71 billion yuan. In addition, the first Aerospace Institute indicated that by the end of the 13th five-year Plan, the revenue was 100 billion yuan and the total profit was 6 billion yuan. we believe that the asset securitization of the first Aerospace Science and Technology Group is the key link for the Aerospace Science and Technology Group to achieve 45% asset securitization during the 13th five-year Plan period. as the only listing platform for the first Academy of Aerospace Engineering, there is a huge space for asset integration.
Investment advice: we expect the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 to be 3.39max 3.79 / 413 million, EPS 0.82, 0.92 and 1.00 respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE is 36-32-29, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of group asset securitization is lower than expected
