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【光大证券】天汽模:业绩稳定,关注外延进展

光大證券 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced its three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, a net profit margin of 7.87%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year, and an EPS of 0.25 yuan. The performance was in line with expectations. Financial expenses have increased dramatically, and the maintenance of stable performance has benefited the automobile industry. The automobile industry achieved a relatively rapid increase in revenue this year due to the impact of the recovery spurred by the purchase tax halving policy. The increase in interest expenses on convertible bonds issued by the company in the current period, as well as the increase in exchange profit and loss compared to the same period last year, caused the company's financial expenses to increase by 15.2 million yuan over the same period last year, causing the company's profit to decline slightly. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters decreased by 3.82 percentage points to 22.53%, and the period's expense ratio decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 14.17%. Among them, the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 2.58%, 10.48%, and 1.65%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.50, -0.01 and 1.08 percentage points. We believe that the company will benefit from the steady development of the industry and that its performance will remain stable. Annual performance is expected to grow steadily, and extended expansion is worth expecting the company to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 130 million yuan to 180 million yuan in 2016, an increase of -20% to 10% over the previous year. As of July 2016, the company has received orders of more than 2 billion yuan. We believe that by adjusting the product structure and controlling costs, the company's business is expected to remain stable throughout the year. At the same time, the company reported that the company continues to focus on high-tech fields and emerging industries such as aerospace, military industry, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, and high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., actively seeking cooperation projects and continuing to explore diversified strategic layouts. Currently, the company has suspended trading due to plans to issue shares to purchase assets, and progress is worth paying attention to. Maintaining the purchase rating, with a target price of 8.5 yuan for six months, based on molds, actively extending the industrial chain and laying out emerging industries, the performance valuation is expected to both improve. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.22 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.40 yuan, respectively. The purchase rating is maintained. The target price for 6 months is 8.5 yuan, corresponding to 39 times PE in 2016. Risk warning: The number of new models launched on the market falls short of expectations, and overseas business expansion falls short of expectations.

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