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【广发证券】汇洁股份:线上高速增长,内衣消费升级潜力巨大

廣發證券 ·  Nov 14, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Online sales are growing rapidly, and sub-brands are growing rapidly. The company has nearly 2,000 offline direct sales counters, providing brand endorsements for e-commerce platforms. Online sales have grown rapidly, and their share of total revenue has increased from 3% in 2012 to nearly 20% now. At the same time, the company actively builds sub-brand groups positioned in market segments, and enables sub-brands to grow rapidly through the main brand drainage. We expect the company's online sales to continue to grow rapidly, driven by organic growth of the main brand and the creation of new sub-brands. The high-end underwear market space is huge. The company will directly benefit from consumption upgrades. China's high-end underwear market share is far lower than the market share of high-end underwear in mature economies, and there is huge room for development. Foreign experience shows that at a stage where the per capita GDP (PPP) is close to 20,000 US dollars, there will be a significant consumption upgrade in the underwear market, and the market share of high-end underwear will increase significantly. We believe that the Chinese underwear market will likely meet an inflection point of consumption upgrading within a few years. The new cosmetics business may bring new growth points. The company's entry into the cosmetics sector in April of this year is low. The market's expectations for this are low. If the new business progresses smoothly, it may push the company's performance beyond expectations. The current stock price for the 2016-18 EPS is estimated to be 0.799 yuan, 0.926 yuan, and 1.061 yuan, corresponding to the 2017 P/E is 40.2x, and the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average. However, we believe that the company's online sales will continue to grow rapidly, and there is a possibility that the cosmetics business will exceed expectations, so we covered it for the first time and gave it a purchase rating. The risk suggests that the company's product positioning is middle to high-end, which is greatly affected by the slowdown in economic growth; the risk of failure to adapt to changes in consumer demand and a decline in market share

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