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【长城证券】德联集团公司动态点评:业绩增长稳定,战略调整符合现阶段发展

長城證券 ·  Oct 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

In recent years, many e-commerce platforms in the automotive aftermarket have taken the lead and spawned many business models. Under the promotion of capital, the irrational behavior of the subsidy model has even occurred. Capital investment has also gone through a process from peak to bottom, accompanied by serious losses and bankruptcy of some operators. During the period of irrational market expansion, the company changed its business strategy, choosing to focus on “quantity” to focusing on “quality,” actively slowing down the post-market layout with “2S stores” as the core, and implementing a strategic shift of “taking MB2B2C online sales as the lead and increasing development cooperation to serve 2S stores.” Referring to the mature automobile chain business model and automobile service supermarket model abroad, we continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's offline chain brand model with “2S stores” as the core. The company's EPS for 2016-2018 is expected to be 0.30, 0.35, and 0.41 yuan respectively. The current stock price is 29 times, 25 times, and 21 times PE, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The company released a three-quarter report: In the first three quarters of 2016, it achieved operating income of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46% over the previous year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 113 million yuan, an increase of 6.07% over the previous year, and EPS of 0.15 yuan. Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 578 million yuan, an increase of 22.89% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 46 million yuan, an increase of 36.99% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations. At the same time, the company announced that it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the full year of 2016 of 143-214 million yuan, with a change of -20% to 20%. Quarterly results improved, with steady growth throughout the year. The company's post-market business in the first half of the year saw a slight decline in performance due to a large increase in labor costs and a large increase in fixed asset depreciation and amortization expenses due to the completion and commissioning of the initial fund-raising project. Entering the second half of the year, the company took the initiative to slow down the pace of market expansion. The process of pursuing “quantity” to “quality” reduced the company's expansion costs, and the third quarter results improved. Year-round results grew steadily. From “weight” to “heavy quality”, it is in line with the current state of development of the company. The number of 2S stores is not the ultimate goal that the company pursues. The company's current goal is to ensure the effectiveness of each existing store as much as possible and effectively contribute to the company's revenue. Therefore, the reason why 2S stores are currently growing slowly is related to the company's focus on screening and integration and summing up operating experience, and is then pursuing a wide range of stores on the basis of ensuring effectiveness. The current transformation of the “2S store layout with a small number of flagship stores plus a large number of cooperative service stores” is in line with the company's current development situation and helps the company to continuously expand and build offline 2S stores on the basis of guaranteed performance. Take MB2B2C online sales as the lead and increase the development of cooperative service 2S stores: In view of the impact of many e-commerce platforms in the automotive aftermarket in recent years, especially the customer diversion phenomenon caused by irrational subsidy behavior, the company plans to use MB2B2C online sales as the lead, develop cooperative service stores, and implement the construction (or acquisition) of self-operated stores to promote the implementation of fund-raising projects. The company's MB2B2C model network system construction is the foundation for future management and operation of the 2S store chain system. Using this system as the first step in implementing the fund-raising project, rapidly expanding the number of users and business volume of the network can not only promote the fund-raising project to generate revenue, but also lay a good foundation for the layout of the 2S store system. The company plans to increase the number of cooperative service stores built according to the 2S store layout with a small number of regional flagship stores plus a large number of cooperative service stores, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of the use of capital raised by the company and reducing the impact on e-commerce platforms in the short term. Continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's chain brand model with a “2S store” as the core: the automotive aftermarket 2S store is a service model that specializes in providing automotive after-sales repair, maintenance, security checks, decoration, and parts replacement, including spare parts (spareparts) and after-sales service (service). 2S stores can operate after-sales service for various car brands, and their business scope is broader and more flexible than 4S stores. Up to now, the company has 2 2S direct stores, 128 regional service providers (large B-side), and more than 7,000 small B-end stores. The number of participating regional dealers and terminal service stores of various types is expected to reach more than 20,000 in 2018, striving to cover more than 10 million terminal car owners. Auto e-commerce platforms have been reshuffled in a round, and countless startups have gone out of business. Internet e-commerce's penetration into the auto parts aftermarket is still low. The consumer portal that dominates the auto parts aftermarket is still: 4S stores, repair shops, and other offline physical stores that can provide overall solutions. Referring to the two mature automobile aftermarket models, the foreign automobile chain business model and the car service supermarket model, we continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's chain brand model with the “2S store” as the core. Risk warning: Competition in the industry has intensified; the automotive aftermarket layout progress falls short of expectations.

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