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【民生证券】东安动力:前三季度营收净利大增,预计Q4业绩更佳

民生證券 ·  Oct 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

I. Overview of the incident. The company released its third quarter performance report. 2. Analysis and judgment. The company's revenue and net profit increased sharply in the first three quarters, mainly driven by a sharp increase in production and sales of supporting models: 1) Revenue for the first three quarters was 1,771 billion yuan, an increase of 116.20% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 71.751 million yuan, an increase of 92.67% over the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 0.1,554 yuan, up 92.80% from the same period last year. 2) Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for the third quarter was 16.1411 million yuan, loss for the same period last year was 30.1717 million yuan; operating income was 573 million yuan, up 170.78% from the same period last year. 3) The sharp increase in net profit is mainly due to a sharp increase in investment income from Toan Mitsubishi and a sharp increase in sales volume at the Dongan headquarters. We expect the company's sales volume to increase drastically in the fourth quarter, and profit will also increase: 1) Looking at the automobile industry as a whole, the third quarter is a low season, and the fourth quarter is entering a peak sales season, which will drive an increase in Dongan engine sales volume. Dongan headquarters and Toan Mitsubishi sold only 73,000 units and 90,000 units in the third quarter. Dongan still has 10 days of high temperature leave in August, and production also fell year on year. Furthermore, Auchan models matched by the Dongan headquarters now have an average monthly sales volume of 10,000, and production capacity has been expanded in October. Subsequent sales of Auchan are expected to increase further, which will drive sales volume and profit at the Dongan headquarters. 2) The profit level of the Dongan headquarters is expected to increase. The third quarter is the traditional overhaul season. This year, due to increased production capacity and product line adjustments, maintenance costs are relatively high. Profit levels are expected to rise in the fourth quarter as sales volume increases and expenses decrease. 3) Dongan Mitsubishi's investment income contribution grew steadily. The CX70 now sells more than 10,000 units per month, and the CS35 and CS75 have also resumed growth after a period of decline. Dongan Mitsubishi's production capacity has always been saturated, and investment returns are stable. 3. Profit forecasting and investment suggestions. Driven by Changan's automotive business, the company's performance has entered a strong growth cycle, the performance of the headquarters has reversed, and investment returns have grown steadily. Regardless of the impact of the future earnings of 6AT transmissions, we expect the 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.33, 0.49, and 0.61, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 36, 24, and 19 times. Maintain a “Highly Recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning. The sales volume of downstream matching models fell short of expectations; the market development of the new 6AT and 1.2T products fell short of expectations.

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