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【中信建投证券】西部牧业:短期业绩承压,长期坚定看好

中信建投證券 ·  Oct 30, 2016 11:00  · Researches

The company achieved revenue of 501 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.88%; realized net profit of 58 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 400.50%. Revenue for the third quarter alone was 165 million yuan, up 8.42% year on year; net profit was 31 million yuan, down 2,669.81% year on year. Revenue stopped falling and rebounded in the third quarter, and net profit was still being suppressed. Revenue for the first and second quarters all declined year on year, and revenue in the third quarter increased year on year. There were both reasons for the increase in sales revenue from raw milk, as well as factors for the increase in sales revenue of dairy products such as milk powder. On the other hand, the company's losses increased in the third quarter, mainly because the factors that previously suppressed the company's performance had not improved or even worsened: 1. Although domestic raw milk prices rebounded to a certain extent in August and September, the increase in domestic raw milk was not significant; the company's raw milk sales price was still hovering at a low level, and the raw milk business was still losing money. The company's sales expenses continued to increase month-on-month in the second and third quarters, mainly for the new product marketing of the subsidiary Nishimu Dairy. 3. In the first half of the year, 150 million of the funds raised through allotment were used to repay bank loans, although financial expenses declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, there was still some pressure on the company's performance. The slaughter project for Australian beef imported from Zhejiang was put into operation at the end of the year, contributing greatly to the marginal performance of the company. The company's subsidiary (40% shareholding) Zhejiang Yiheng Animal Husbandry invests in and constructs the “Isolation and Slaughter Project for 100,000 Australian Beef Cows” which is mainly invested and built by the end of the year. Assuming that next year's production capacity utilization rate reaches half, it is conservatively estimated that it can achieve a net profit of 40 million yuan, thus contributing 16 million yuan of net profit to the company. In addition, the bottoming out of raw milk prices to benefit the company's raw milk business, it can significantly increase the company's profit level. I have been optimistic about the company's infant formula business for a long time. Ximu Dairy's “Ming Xing” and “Because I Love Your Baby” infant formula are on the market and are mainly sold overseas. They are sold online through Tmall, Jingdong's official flagship stores, and WeChat platforms. It is actively expanding various channels offline, and is close to consumers for marketing and promotion through village visits and community promotion. After two years of cultivation, Huayuan Dairy's “Golden Farm” milk powder has already begun to be released. We are also optimistic about Nishimu Dairy's infant formula business, but Nishimu Dairy's products and brands are all new, and require time and financial resources for marketing, so it is difficult to contribute to performance in the short term. The company's losses this year are a foregone conclusion. Next year, the beef and raw milk business will contribute to performance. At the same time, the company has set tasks and targets to force corporate reforms to save costs. We expect the company to turn losses into profits next year. Furthermore, with regard to the rebound in raw milk prices next year, the market has gone from differences to constant expectations. The target directly corresponding to A-shares is Western Animal Husbandry. We believe that Western Animal Husbandry has both performance elasticity and stock price elasticity, and we have reiterated our purchase, with a short-term target price of 22 yuan.

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