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【联讯证券】拓日新能:三季度营收净利润大幅增长,光伏产业链触底反弹

聯訊證券 ·  Oct 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

In January-September of this year, the company achieved revenue of 972 million yuan, an increase of 141.39% over the previous year, net profit of 84 million yuan, an increase of 176.20% over the previous year, and basic earnings per share of 0.14 yuan. The estimated net profit for the whole year was 110 to 125 million yuan, an increase of 254.84% to 303.23% over the previous year. The expansion of production capacity is an important reason for the sharp increase in revenue. The company built two major photovoltaic module production bases in Kashgar and Xining on top of the original three production bases, and also completed the fully automated technical transformation of the photovoltaic module and glass production line, further improving output and quality, and gradually releasing production capacity. It is expected that by the end of the year, it will be able to achieve 1 GW of module production capacity and 2 GW of photovoltaic glass production capacity. The company began laying out photovoltaic power plant operations in 2014, and completed 70 MW of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants within the year. Last year, it increased investment in power plant operations through fixed capital increases. As of June of this year, photovoltaic power plants already connected to the grid had reached 220 MW, achieving electricity bill revenue of 125 million yuan, an increase of 165.96% over the previous year, and power plant operating income gradually increased. As the country continues to introduce measures to improve power restrictions, power plant revenue will grow further. In the future, the company will continue to promote the construction of self-operated power plants and achieve 1 GW of installed capacity within 2-3 years. The company is one of the few manufacturers and sales companies in the industry that focuses on the vertical integration of the industrial chain of photovoltaic modules and related products. It has a technical layout from photovoltaic equipment, single/polycrystalline silicon wafers, cells, modules to power plants. The process parameters of the photovoltaic glass production line have been continuously optimized and adjusted, and the average transmission rate of coated glass exceeds 94%; the self-produced set of automatic string welders, slicers, laminators and other equipment has greatly reduced the cost of expanding production in the industrial chain; and the efficiency of the battery has reached the standards of the National Energy Administration's “Frontrunner” program. After the 6.30 rush to install, the photovoltaic industry experienced a downturn in the third quarter, and prices for related products continued to decline. However, as the 5.16 GW total installed capacity poverty alleviation project recently issued by the Energy Administration and the “2016 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction Implementation Plan Notice” order issued in June have recently begun to be gradually reflected, prices of products related to the industrial chain have bottomed out and rebounded. In particular, upstream polysilicon has rebounded strongly by more than 21%, and there is a clear trend of industry recovery. We expect revenue for 16-18 to be 1,369 million yuan, 1,766 billion yuan, and 2,278 million yuan respectively. Net profit for the same period was 119 million yuan, 157 million yuan, and 211 million yuan, respectively, and earnings per share of 0.19 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.34 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave the company a “buy” rating, and the target price was 11-12 yuan.

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