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【广发证券】雅戈尔:服装调整成效初显,地产成交量仍景气

廣發證券 ·  Nov 2, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The revenue decline in the apparel sector bottomed out, and the results of the channel upgrade are beginning to show that the company's brand clothing business achieved revenue of 694 million yuan in the third quarter, +2.3% year-on-year, up from the -7.2% year-on-year decline in the business in the first half of the year. At the same time, at the end of the third quarter, there were 3,124 sales outlets, a decrease of 113 from the beginning of the year, but the business area increased by 10,054 square meters from the beginning of the year. We believe that the company's “open a big store” strategy and the O2O upgrade of sales terminals are beginning to bear fruit. In the next five years, the company will invest 10 billion yuan in the clothing sector to strengthen fabrics, craftsmanship, and brands, and improve sales channels. We believe that with channel adjustments, the reshaping of the main brand Youngor, and the continued growth of sub-brands, the decline in the menswear sector will gradually narrow, and performance is expected to pick up in 2018. Real estate business turnover is still relatively strong, and profits from low-priced land reserves will be gradually released due to the project development cycle. The real estate sector's revenue for the third quarter was 960 million yuan, -64.9% year-on-year. However, the pre-sales situation for the third quarter was still good. In January-September, the commercial residential transaction area of the six districts of Ningbo City, where the company's main development projects are located, was +40% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as in the first half of the year. The company's real estate sector achieved a pre-sale amount of 4.95 billion yuan in January-September, -13.6% over the same period last year. We believe that although pre-sale amounts in the real estate sector have declined year over year, they are still at a high level. At the same time, the company's land reserve prices are low, and the risk of project impairment has been significantly reduced, so the real estate sector's contribution to the Group's profits will remain stable over the next two years. The 16-18 results are 1.80 yuan/share, 1.88 yuan/share, and 1.93 yuan/share, respectively, and the company's current stock price corresponding to 17-year P/E is 8.1x, which is slightly lower than the company's historical average valuation over the past five years. We believe that as the company continues to invest in the menswear sector, the decline in the menswear business will gradually narrow and return to the growth path. At the same time, the company's dividend yield is 5.6%, which also provides a strong margin of safety for the stock price, so we maintain our buying rating for the company. Risk indicates the risk of fluctuations in the performance of the investment sector; the risk of an overall downturn in the real estate industry;

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