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【西南证券】云投生态:非公开发行一波三折终于通过

西南證券 ·  Nov 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company's application for a non-public offering of shares was approved. The ups and downs of the non-public offering are finally passed, and we are waiting for the plan to be implemented. The company's non-public offering plan was slimmed down in September after receiving two feedbacks from the Securities Regulatory Commission. The capital raised was adjusted to 720 million yuan to repay the Cloud Investment Group loan and supplement working capital. The issue price was 70% higher than the average price for the 20 trading days before the first day of issuance and 12.14 yuan. The current distribution plan took over a year of ups and downs and was finally approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. The biggest variable in the non-public offering has been eliminated, and the approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission is still pending. If the non-public offering is successfully implemented, the shareholding ratio of Cloud Investment Group, the controlling shareholder, will increase by 16.7 percentage points to 37.8%, and the balance ratio will drop sharply, significantly improving the company's capital structure. Furthermore, the company's financial expenses are expected to decrease and improve the overall profit level, supporting the company's further transformation and upgrading of its business in the future. Fundamentals continue to improve, and there are sufficient orders such as PPP in hand to create a major ecological and environmental protection platform for Yunnan. The company was originally a green land. After years of reshuffling and rationalization, and orderly transformation into the right track of development, performance also moved from a low base to a period of rapid release. The company's net profit in 2015 was 10.25 million yuan, benefiting from the promotion of engineering projects, the company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2016 was 34.42 million yuan. An inflection point in endogenous growth has now been reached, and fundamentals have improved. After winning the bid for the 2.5 billion Tonghai Regional Ecological PPP project in August 2015, it won another bid for the 1.32 billion Suining Sponge City PPP project in the first half of 2016. Currently, the total number of PPP orders in hand exceeds 4 billion yuan. Sufficient orders in hand will support the company's performance and continuous improvement in fundamentals over the next few years. In the future, as the government increases and supports PPP projects, the company is expected to continue to benefit and win more orders; at the same time, in the field of ecology and environmental protection, the company is expected to further promote epitaxial expansion, improve the industrial chain puzzle, and gradually build a major ecological and environmental protection platform for Yunnan. Small groups with large market capitalization have substantially advanced the reform of state-owned enterprises. The company's market capitalization is small (currently only 4.3 billion yuan), and performance flexibility is high. At the same time, the controlling shareholder Cloud Investment Group owns many assets such as tourism and pharmaceuticals, and has only one listing platform for the company, so there is huge room for imagination for subsequent asset integration. Furthermore, even after the adjustment of the non-public offering plan, employee shareholding is still promoted. The employee shareholding plan subscribes for 820,000 shares, with a subscription amount of 9.9 million yuan. It actually implements state-owned enterprise reform and institutional innovation, and is a scarce state-owned enterprise reform promotion company. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 80x, 49x, and 37x. The “increased holdings” rating will be maintained for the time being. Considering that the company's order volume from 2017 to 2018 is highly flexible on performance and profits may exceed expectations, it is recommended to focus on it. Risk warning: order execution falls short of expectations, uncertain risk of non-public offering, risk of bad debt, etc.

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