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【华创证券】森远股份与交通部公路研究院战略合作点评:公司进一步向服务商转型,将显著受益于公路养护大周期的启动

華創證券 ·  Oct 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key points 1. This cooperation will promote the development of the highway maintenance market and expand the influence of Moriyuan. The Highway Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport is a leader in highway maintenance technology and the setting of relevant standards. Moriyuan is a leading road maintenance equipment company. This cooperation will help promote the further development of the road maintenance market, raise the level of road maintenance technology, and expand the market influence of Senyuan Co., Ltd. At the same time, this cooperation is another major step taken by Senyuan in the transformation of road maintenance services, which will help strengthen the company's transformation from an equipment provider to a service provider. 2. The large-scale road maintenance cycle is about to begin. The company's early layout will enter the harvest period. Currently, China's road ownership has become number one in the world, construction is coming to an end, and maintenance demand is gradually being released. With the beginning of the maintenance cycle, it is estimated that the annual demand for equipment will exceed 20 billion yuan, and the annual investment in maintenance services will exceed 200 billion yuan. Since 2013, Senyuan began its transformation from equipment manufacturing to maintenance layout, and has established 19 joint ventures across the country. At the end of the year, it will enter a harvest period. It is estimated that the net profit of a single mature company will exceed 10 million in a year. Currently, the average shareholding ratio of Senyuan in joint ventures is 30%-40%, and it is expected that it will hold high-quality companies in the future. 3. The pipe gallery PPP project, which won a total of 10 billion dollars twice, marks the company's successful transformation into a municipal service outsourcer. The company won the bid for the Jilin Pipeline Gallery PPP project twice in the second half of the year, successfully transformed into a municipal service outsourcing service provider, and the joint venture model entered the 2.0 era. The total order of about 10 billion dollars, and the two-year construction period from 17-18 is expected to bring the company more than 100 million dollars in profit contributions every year and push the company's performance into a period of explosion. 4. Profit forecast predicts that the company's performance in 16-18 is 110 million yuan, 240 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, EPS is 0.41, 0.89, and 1.19, and PE corresponds to 58X, 27X, and 20X, maintaining a strong recommendation rating. 5. Risk warning that the number of joint ventures established falls short of expectations, and the progress of PPP projects falls short of expectations.

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