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【国泰君安】海默科技2016年三季报点评:业绩低于预期,核电后市场卡位优势确立

國泰君安 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: It is announced that revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2016 increased by -24.43% and 150.92% respectively, which is lower than our expectations. It is expected that next year will be the first year of growth in the company's performance, and the company has become the most flexible post-nuclear power market concept stock, increasing its holdings. Investment highlights: Conclusion: The company announced revenue of 208 million yuan and profit of 2,094 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2016, respectively, growth of -24.43% and 150.92%, respectively, lower than our expectations. On the one hand, it was dragged down by the sharp decline in oilfield equipment revenue and the sharp increase in financial expenses. On the other hand, most of the revenue of the subsidiary Qinghe Machinery was confirmed in the fourth quarter; it is determined that oil prices will fluctuate and rise. Next year is the first year of growth in the company's performance. After investing in 25% of the shares of CNNC Jiahua, the company has become the most flexible post-nuclear power market (spent fuel) concept stock. We continue to be optimistic about “small market companies” The “+ big transformation” development strategy kept the 2016-2018 EPS unchanged at 0.11/0.25/0.37 yuan, kept the target price unchanged at 20 yuan, and maintained an increase in holdings rating. The short-term rebound in oil prices is difficult to improve performance; next year will be the first year for the company's performance to grow. Although international crude oil prices remained fluctuating around 50 US dollars/barrel in the third quarter, the International Energy Company still did not increase capital investment. The company's main business revenue and profit for oil field equipment have not improved. Only when the oil price exceeds 60 US dollars/barrel and remains at least half a year can bring about a reversal in the equipment industry; the company's current investment in the US in the Niobrara Joint Development Block and the Permian Basin Independent Development Block are still close to the break-even point. Currently, oil prices have not brought obvious performance elasticity, nor will they rashly drill wells. Judging that the subsequent oil prices will fluctuate back to the company's performance. First year of growth. There is huge space in the nuclear power aftermarket, and the company has become the most flexible concept stock in the post-nuclear power market. According to our grassroots research, CNNC's large-scale spent fuel reprocessing project in Gansu invested about 30 billion yuan, non-standard equipment exceeded 7 billion yuan, centralized bidding in 2017, and put into use in 2023. The average annual market exceeded 1 billion, and entry barriers were extremely high. However, CNNC Jiahua has comprehensive advantages in qualifications, geography, and connections, and has a clear card position. Compared with the current revenue volume of 60 million yuan, performance elasticity is extremely high. Risk warning: International oil prices continue to fall and exchange rates fluctuate.

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