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【华创证券】森远股份:预中标53亿PPP项目,100亿订单确保业绩爆发,转型成功,这只是开始

華創證券 ·  Oct 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Matter: The consortium formed by Senyuan Co., Ltd. and Jilin Municipal Construction Group Co., Ltd. became the pre-winning bidder for the Jilin Underground Integrated Pipeline Gallery Government and Social Capital Cooperation (PPP) project [Jilin High-tech Zone Underground Integrated Pipeline Construction Project Section 3]. The final price of the project was 5.331 billion yuan. Key investment points 1. Once again, the bid for the 5.3 billion pipe gallery PPP project marks the success of the company's transformation as a municipal service outsourcer. The consortium formed by Senyuan Co., Ltd. and Jilin Municipal Construction Group Co., Ltd. has once again pre-bid for the Jilin City Underground Integrated Pipeline Gallery Government and Social Capital Cooperation (PPP) project [three stages of the Jilin High-tech Zone underground integrated pipe gallery construction project]. The final project price is 5.33 billion yuan. The project period: N+25 years (N years: construction period; 25 years: operation period) The construction period is tentatively set at 2 years. After winning the 4.4 billion PPP order for the Jilin Pipeline Corridor in September, the company won another 5.3 billion bid, highlighting the company's success in transforming service outsourcers and officially entering the trillion-dollar municipal service outsourcing market. The 10 billion pipe gallery PPP project, and the construction period of 17-18 is expected to bring the company more than 100 million dollars in profit contributions every year, and push the company's performance into a period of explosion! 2. With the response to the equipment tender and the implementation of the PPP project, Q4 will be a turning point in the company's performance. Since 2013, the leading road maintenance equipment company has been transforming from equipment manufacturing to maintenance layout. Road maintenance equipment leaders have set up joint ventures under the PPP model. Currently, 19 joint ventures are spread across the country, and the harvest period will begin at the end of the year. The net profit of a single mature company is expected to exceed 10 million a year. Currently, Senyuan has an average shareholding ratio of 30%-40% in joint ventures, and is expected to hold high-quality companies in the future. With the response to the equipment tender and the implementation of the PPP project, the layout of the first two years entered a harvest period at the end of 2016. Q4 will be a turning point in the company's performance, and the company ushered in a period of rapid transformation and development! 3. The company and Enlightenment Sander begin a new chapter in the cooperation model, which will bring leaps and bounds to equipment sales. Sander is a leading enterprise integrating solid waste treatment engineering systems in China. It also lays out intelligent integrated Internet sanitation services, and uses this as an entry point to lay out renewable resource recycling, advertising, reverse logistics and other businesses, making every effort to create an Internet+ model of sanitation operations. The company obtained 32 new sanitation clean-up project contracts in 2015, and expects to establish 230 new basic sanitation operation project companies nationwide from 2016 to 2018. After cooperating with Senyuan, it is expected that road maintenance will be incorporated into the company's platform project and the scope of the platform's business will be enhanced. Senyuan's rich road maintenance layout and Sander's Internet platform will help both sides quickly occupy the 100 billion market for maintenance services. 4. Senyuan is also deploying military+3D printing, which is expected to contribute to new performance growth points. Senyuan Co., Ltd. has become a first-level military supplier of new road maintenance machinery. The company's large-scale heat regeneration units, road surface snow removal and cleaning equipment and other products are included in military procurement, and can be added to the entire military supply system. The company will also participate in the rapid manufacture of components such as ship propellers using sand laser 3D printing technology. The development of the military market is another new growth point for the company's business performance. Senyuan began laying out the 3D printing industry chain in 2014, and currently the company is applying for military secrecy qualifications. The company's 3D printing support for key naval projects has huge potential and is expected to become the next Wang Huaming team (J-20 support). 5. The profit forecast predicts that the company's performance in 16-18 is 110 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 300 million yuan. EPS is 0.4, 0.8, and 1.1, and PE corresponds to 54X, 27X, and 20X, maintaining a highly recommended rating. 6. Risk suggests that the number of joint ventures established falls short of expectations, and the progress of PPP projects falls short of expectations

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