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【华泰证券】开尔新材:政策倒逼业绩释放,存量替换市场可观

華泰證券 ·  Oct 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

There are plenty of orders in hand, and the performance of the low temperature economizer in the second half of the year will accelerate the confirmation that the low temperature economizer is one of the new environmentally friendly products developed by the company, which will begin to be introduced to the market at the end of 2015. It is mainly used at the front end of flue gas emissions and is in line with the national clean emission industry policy guidelines and requirements. The use of low-temperature economizers will be the future development direction of coal-fired power plants for energy saving and emission reduction. We expect the company's on-hand orders to exceed 250 million yuan, and the company has announced that it has not executed major orders of 173 million yuan. Some orders are likely to confirm revenue in the second half of the year. It is expected that at that time the state will subsidize electricity prices to a certain extent, thus spurring the company's low temperature economizer to show rapid volume release. National policies have forced the release of performance. 2017 will be the last year for the eastern region to achieve ultra-low emission targets. The government has introduced energy saving and emission reduction work arrangements for coal-fired power plants. Accelerating the progress of energy saving and emission reduction is expected to prompt the government to increase electricity subsidies for power plants that meet energy saving and emission reduction standards. Government subsidies have strongly promoted enterprises to carry out clean transformation. The low temperature economizer is expected to reduce coal consumption for electricity supply by 1.4 to 1.8 g/kwh. The technology is mature, and it is suitable for various types of units of 30 to 1 million kilowatts. In terms of reducing emissions, installing a low-temperature economizer in front of the chimney can reduce problems such as “chimney rain” and haze. The national energy saving and emission reduction policy will promote the expansion of the low-temperature economizer market and the rapid improvement of performance. Enamel board materials make up for many defects in existing chimney flue systems. The huge market space for wet desulfurization is the main cause of serious corrosion in chimney flues. The wet limestone washing method is the most used and most mature process abroad, and it is also the leading process for desulfurization in domestic thermal power plants. Currently, anti-corrosion materials for chimneys in thermal power plants mainly use lightweight bricks, alloy steel sheets, glass flakes, and fiberglass, and each has obvious defects. Enamel plate is a novel composite material of high quality low carbon steel plate and inorganic non-metallic materials fused at high temperature to form a tight chemical bond. It has both the flexibility of the metal material and the durability of the porcelain material, making it suitable for high temperature and corrosive environments such as flue chimneys. The market space for the transformation of enamel materials on the inner wall of chimneys and flues is huge, about 55 billion yuan. The enamel building curtain wall business is about to explode. The outstanding advantages of the company's enamel curtain wall are weight, self-cleaning, and durability, making the building façade beautiful and affordable. The production capacity and specialized marketing issues that originally limited this business are about to be solved. The company has invested 351 million yuan from its own capital in the enamel building curtain wall industrialization base project. We estimate that the enamel building curtain wall production line will be put into use before the end of this year. At the end of 2015, the company set up a professional exterior curtain wall marketing division. The marketing capabilities combined with completed landmark buildings will hopefully drive orders for enamel curtain walls. After the establishment of a professional marketing team, marketing capabilities and brand effects are expected to promote the rapid development of the company's enamel curtain wall business. The company's orders are full, and the downstream market space is considerable. Maintaining the “buy” rating, we expect the company's EPS for 2016-18 to be 0.52/0.77/0.99 yuan. The company has plenty of orders in hand, considerable space for developing downstream markets, and has certain technical barriers and first-mover advantages. The company's subsequent performance is expected to increase significantly. The company was given 45-50 XPE in 2016, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 23.4-26 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Order confirmation progress fell short of expectations; promotion of enamel board chimney flue corrosion systems fell short of expectations.

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