The high base leads to a slowdown in the growth rate of performance in the third quarter, and we look forward to the fourth quarter.
The company achieved operating income of 439 million yuan in the single quarter of 2016, down 4.68% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of 99.5867 million yuan, down 33.98% from the same period last year (35.53% after deducting non-profit). The slowdown in revenue and performance growth in the third quarter was mainly due to high growth in the same period last year. Last year, Q3 revenue increased by 58.12% compared with the same period last year, and home net profit increased by 94.78%. From January to September this year, the company achieved operating income of 904 million yuan, an increase of 56.19% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, an increase of 6.14% over the same period last year (10.45% after deducting non-profit). The company's home net profit in 2015 was 266 million yuan, and this year it promised a net profit of 361 million yuan, an increase of 35.71% over the same period last year. From January to September this year, it has completed 48.20%. Considering that the value in the same period last year was 61.65%, we expect to make efforts in the fourth quarter of this year.
Profitability increased month-on-month, and the increase in project advances led to the deterioration of cash flow.
From January to September 2016, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 31.34%, up 1.5% from 29.84% of 16H1, but 12.65% lower than that of the same period last year. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of photovoltaic business with relatively low gross profit margin and the increase in operating costs during the current period of rapid development. The rise in operating costs also caused the net interest rate to fall 9.06 percentage points year-on-year to 19.21%, but still up 3.28 percentage points from 15.93% reported in China. From January to September 2016, the net operating cash flow was-206 million yuan, compared with the 116 million reported in the continued outflow of 90 million yuan, we judge that the deterioration of cash flow is mainly related to the need for partial advance funds for the installation of photovoltaic power stations.
Definitely increase the current supply and lead to the war, suspending the review temporarily will not hinder the overall process.
The company announced on October 13 that, upon application by the company, the CSRC decided to suspend the examination of non-public offerings. We judge that this is related to the regulatory rhythm of non-public offerings and has no material impact on the company's private placement. At present, the company's wholly-owned grandson company, Shanghai Memphis and Shenzhen Sanyi Construction, have respectively decided to set up Jiangsu Memphis and Malaysia subsidiaries, and the company's business progress and investment layout are still in normal progress. After Dingzeng acquires 90% equity of Zhongwei structural Design and Zhongwei Steel structural Design, it will bring advanced design concepts and methods to the company, which will enhance the company's leading design capability in the field of metal roof maintenance system to the entire architectural design field. promote the upward extension of the industrial chain. In addition, through the introduction of Fosun, Zhongzhi, Oriental Venture Capital and Haier Venture Capital, the company's business coordination and overseas markets will also be further expanded, and the company's performance will continue to grow at a high level. do not rule out breakthroughs in the lower reaches of the industrial chain such as intelligent buildings.
Be optimistic about the high performance growth in the fourth quarter and maintain the "buy" rating.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2016-18 will be 0.53 YOY+48%/30%/28%, 0.69 CAGR+35%, and the next three years will be RMB0.88. Taking into account the company's growth and comparable company valuation, we believe that the company can be given a 16-year 30-35 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 15.9-18.6 yuan, to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: infrastructure promotion does not meet expectations; fixed growth does not meet expectations; RMB exchange rate fluctuations and so on.