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【海通证券】华斯股份公司跟踪报告:涉足美妆网红变现洼地,社交电商闭环进一步完善

海通證券 ·  Sep 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The monetization of beauty influencers is still in a slump, and there is plenty of room for the future. Currently, there are three main categories of influencers with fixed monetization models: 1) influencers who rely on advertising to monetize; 2) show influencers, including expert influencers, who mainly rely on rewards to monetize; 3) e-commerce influencers, who rely on product sales to monetize. In the monetization of e-commerce influencers, beauty and clothing are the two most important categories. From a domestic perspective, clothing monetization was the first to land. Currently, competition is relatively full, while from a foreign perspective, beauty influencers are monetizing on a larger scale. As a result, changes in the beauty category are currently still in a slump in the country, with plenty of room for development. Compared to the two categories of beauty and clothing, there are certain advantages in monetizing beauty. On the one hand, the gross margin of beauty is relatively high (the gross margin of beauty of private brands can reach 70% or more, while the gross margin of private clothing brands is only about 50%); on the other hand, the beauty category is relatively single, and the product life cycle is longer, so the supply chain management difficulty will be greatly reduced. It is expected that along with increased competition for monetization in the clothing category of influencers, it will drive a gradual explosion of monetization in beauty and other categories. The company will lay out the monetization field for beauty influencers ahead of time through acquisitions in the future, and is expected to share the dividends of beauty influencer monetization. The realization of a private brand is the core of monetization of beauty influencers. One notable difference between beauty and clothing monetization is reflected in: in clothing monetization, sales volume is positively correlated with the number of fans, and there is no concept of a flashpoint; in beauty monetization, beauty influencers need to accumulate a large number of fans in the early stages, and only after reaching a critical point will sales volume explode. This core point is the realization of their own brands. The Future Moment Private Label discussion was initially successful. The time when a company chooses to invest in the future is also the point where its own brand explores success in the future. The Future Moment currently has signed contracts with more than 20 celebrities with e-commerce monetization capabilities. Among them, Wang Yuepeng's Niko was launched twice in May and July, and various products such as cosmetic bags and makeup brushes under its own brand “NIKO BRAVO” were sold out within a few seconds, with a total sales amount of about 800,000 yuan. Their independent brand discussions have achieved initial success. In the future, as the number of fans continues to grow and the popularity of our own brands expands, the sales scale will be further increased. High-quality investment, closed-loop social e-commerce tends to improve. The company has now formed a closed loop of Weibo fans, celebrity data mining (Yushe Technology), influencer operations (future moments), back-end docking (supply chain), and monetization (micro-selling). Investments in high-quality social networking trademarks such as Yushe Technology and Future Moments show the company's confidence and determination to lay out the social fan field, while also demonstrating the company's ability to acquire high-quality resources. As investment continues to enter the monetization field of beauty influencers in the future, the company is expected to further expand in the beauty supply chain field in the future, and the closed loop of social e-commerce will further improve. Profit forecasting and valuation. Considering the raw materials market, Fur City's subsequent rental income contribution, and the appreciation of early-stage reserve land, investment income brought by participating companies are all expected to open up new performance growth points. With a reserve price of 14.31 yuan/share for non-public offerings in 2016, there is still a margin of safety. In 2016-18, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 2037, 6716, and 91.17 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 12.72%, 229.75%, and 35.76%, corresponding to EPS of 0.06, 0.19, and 0.26 yuan, respectively. Referring to the relevant comparable company, the 17-year PE range is 50x-101x. In the context of the company's industrial upgrading, considering the explosive performance brought about by subsequent Internet business promotion and the scarcity of leading enterprise targets in similar businesses, the company was given 90xPE in 2017, corresponding to a target price of 17.34 yuan, and an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: The company's performance declined further, and the social e-commerce ecosystem layout fell short of expectations.

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