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【海通证券】广济药业公司公告点评:产品涨价,成本下降,业绩持续改善

海通證券 ·  Oct 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

incident. On October 11, the company released its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2016. The net profit range for the first three quarters was 100 million yuan to 140 million yuan, and earnings per share were 0.397 yuan to 0.556 yuan. In 2016, the company's profitability improved quarterly, with a profit of 43.12 million yuan to 83.12 million yuan in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2016, the sales prices of the company's main products VB2 and VB6 increased sharply year-on-year, and the price of raw corn flour continued to decline. At the same time, the company effectively improved work efficiency, reduced production costs, and enhanced the company's profitability through measures such as optimizing production processes, innovating sales models, and strengthening market management. In 2016, Q1 achieved net profit of 2.36 million yuan, Q2 net profit of 33.82 million yuan. The Q3 quarter was calculated at around 63 million yuan according to the median performance forecast, exceeding the performance for the first half of the year, and the performance improved quarter by quarter. Prices of VB2 and VB6 are at the highest levels since the third quarter, and the fourth quarter results are expected to continue to improve. As of October 11, the prices of mainstream enterprises in the 80% feed-grade VB2 market were around 270-280 yuan/kg, some manufacturers quoted 300 yuan/kg, the VB6 market price was around 220-240 yuan/kg, some manufacturers stopped production and maintenance, and supply in the spot market was tight. We expect prices of VB2 and VB6 products to maintain an upward trend. If we look at current product market prices, VB2 is at a high price level since the third quarter, and VB6 prices will continue to rise, and we expect the company's performance to continue to improve in the fourth quarter. The price of corn starch has continued to decline, and the cost of the product has declined. Half of the company's operating costs are raw material costs, and the company's main raw material is corn flour. In 2016, corn prices were decided by the market, and the government gave corn producers a certain subsidy. Producers followed the market to sell corn, forming a new market pattern with diversification of purchasing and marketing entities and multi-channel distribution, and with the launch of new corn, corn prices continued to decline in 2016. In October 2015, corn starch prices in Shandong fell to 2,400 yuan/ton. In October 2016, corn starch prices fell to 2,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. The continuous decline in the prices of major raw materials has led to a continuous increase in the gross profit of the company's products. The company is a resource integration platform for Changtou Group. In 2014/7, the company's shares were transferred. In the equity change report, the majority shareholder Changping Group stated that the shares were transferred because they were optimistic about the future development prospects of the biomedical industry and hoped to use the current acquisition of Guangji Pharmaceutical shares as an opportunity to vigorously develop the biomedical industry and build a biomedical industry chain; at the same time, when conditions are ripe, use the listed company platform to effectively integrate high-quality assets and expand and strengthen the listed company. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The competitive pattern of VB2 and VB6 is stable, and product prices are on an upward trend. According to the annual average price of VB2 and VB6 of 250 yuan/kg and 260 yuan/kg, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company from 2016 to 2018 is 184 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 284 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.73 yuan/share, 0.93 yuan/share, and 1.13 yuan/share, respectively. Given the upward trend in product prices, the price of raw materials corn starch is weakly declining, and profitability continues to improve, giving the company 30XPE in 2017, corresponding to 6 million yuan The target price for the month is 27.90 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: risk of large fluctuations in product prices; risk of bio-industrial park construction falling short of expectations.

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