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【国信证券】东安动力:9月份销量创年内新高,中长期关注6AT进展

國信證券 ·  Oct 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

In September, sales of the headquarters increased by 189.59% year on year, and Mitsubishi sales increased 38.61% year on year. In September 2016, the engine production/sales volume of Dongan Power Division was 30077 units/30,963 units, up 111.51%/189.59% year on year respectively; as of the end of September, the cumulative production/sales volume was 228,900 units/223,200 units, respectively, up 118.79%/122.27% year on year. The production and sales volume of the subsidiary Dongan Mitsubishi was 41,075 units/39,582 units respectively, up 39.99%/38.61% year on year; the cumulative production/sales volume as of the end of August was 321,600 units/326,300 units, respectively, up 28.93%/32.22% year on year. In summary, in September, Dongan Power Division broke through the March peak with sales data of 30,000 units and hit a new high during the year. This is in line with the “gold nine silver ten” expectations in our previous report. The year-on-year sales growth rate of Dongan Mitsubishi showed an upward trend in September (32.22% year-on-year increase in January-August, 38.61% year-on-year increase in September). The high growth mainly benefited from the boom in the passenger car market in September (we expect 20% year-on-year growth). The sales volume of downstream customers Changan Auchan, Onuo, CS35, and CX70 all exceeded 10,000. Among them, CS35 increased 24.15% year on year, and Onuo increased 13.94% year on year. We believe that Dongan Power's sales declined seasonally in August, and returned to a rapid growth channel in September. The sales volume of the headquarters surpassed 30,000 units for the first time, setting a new high during the year; Dongan Mitsubishi showed an upward trend in year-on-year growth, and is expected to maintain the “gold nine silver ten” market in October. The peak season for automobile production and sales is approaching. Sales of the CX70, CS35, Onuo, and Auchan increased steadily. September is the peak season for the traditional car market. The year-on-year retail sales growth rate in the first three weeks reached 52%, 24%, and 29%, respectively. We expect passenger cars to grow by more than 20% year on year in September. Among them, Changan Group is one of Dongan Power's main customers, and sales of core supporting models such as Auchan, CS35, CX70, and Onuo achieved steady growth in September. Changan's three main models, CX70, CS35, and Onuo, supplied by Dongan Mitsubishi, are in a leading position in sales in the market segment. Among them, the CX70 was Changan's new SUV in 2016, and sales have gradually increased by tens of thousands of units since its launch. The CS35 and Onuo are leaders in the SUV/MPV market, respectively, and achieved year-on-year growth rates of 24.15% and 13.94% respectively in September. Benefiting from the high growth rate of engine sales in the short term, focusing on 6AT progress in the medium to long term, and maintaining the “buy” rating, we believe that the low sales season in the traditional car market in July and August has passed, and the “golden nine silver ten” market directly contributed to Dongan Power engine sales. In the short term, the passenger car market is expected to grow steadily in the fourth quarter. Dongan Power's downstream customers are mainly two high-quality automakers, Changan Automobile and BAIC Group, and sales are promising throughout the year; in the medium to long term, the company's 6AT products are progressing smoothly and may be produced in small batches next year, which is expected to become a new contribution point to performance in the future. We predict that EPS in 16/17/18 will be 0.37/0.47/0.59 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 32/26/20 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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