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【光大证券】明牌珠宝:收购好屋顺利推进,业绩有望大幅改善

光大證券 ·  Sep 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company announced the progress of the assets subject to the acquisition and announced to the company that issued 231 million shares on the evening of September 26 that the board of directors has passed the relevant bill: (1) It is proposed to purchase 75% of the shares of Suzhou Haowu Information Technology Co., Ltd. by issuing shares and paying cash from 12 natural persons including Wang Meiling and 4 legal entities including Suzhou Jishuai Investment Company (Limited Partnership). Of these, 30% of the underlying asset consideration will be paid in cash, and the company will hold 100% of Haoya's shares after the acquisition is completed. (2) It is proposed to issue 72 million shares to 10 investors including Wan Mei-kuen to raise supporting capital to pay cash consideration, related issuance fees, and intermediary agency fees. The company has now issued a total of 231 million shares in a targeted manner, with an issue price of 1,055 yuan/share. This plan has yet to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for consideration. Haowu China is one of the leading “real estate+finance+big data value-added services” O2O platforms in China. As of August 2016, Haowu has completed the layout of 114 large and medium-sized cities across the country and 5 overseas cities, bringing together high-quality housing from more than 260 brand developers, including CNOOC, Vanke, and Greenland, shared real estate data from more than 10,000 professional institutions, and data and professional services from more than 5.5 million agents. In 2013-2015, Haowu China achieved operating income of 2.42/68/982 million yuan, respectively, and achieved net profit of 0.05/0.23/89 billion yuan. Joining Haowu China will achieve a breakthrough in the company's investment in the new economy and industry, broaden the scope of the company's business, and facilitate the formation of the company's diversified investment ecology and business ecology. The counterparty promised the company that the target company achieved net profit for 2016-2018 (consolidated statement, net profit excluding parent net profit) of 1.80/250/320 million yuan, respectively. Optional consumer goods will still be in trouble in the short term. Short-term gold and jewelry maintain a cautious view. The company achieved operating income of 1,964 billion yuan in the first half of 2016, a year-on-year decrease of 39.99%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 42 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.22%; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 23 million yuan, a decrease of 44.53% year-on-year, which is basically in line with our expectations. Although the price of gold has been trending strongly since the end of last year, gold and jewelry sales have failed to grow at the same time as the price of gold due to the triple factors of 1) excessive rise in housing prices in Tier 1 and 2 cities, curbing rigid demand and spending on optional consumer goods, 2) the stock market disaster in the capital market to curb consumer spending, and 3) the slowing growth rate of residents' disposable income. We believe that given the current macroeconomic situation, the growth rate of gold and jewelry sales may narrow in the second half of the year, but it is still in a sluggish stage. We still maintain the cautious views of companies related to the gold and jewelry industry in the short term. The main reason is that this round of rising gold prices has not boosted the growth of gold and jewelry consumption. After Haoya China is included in the consolidated statements, the company's performance is expected to improve significantly. After the asset acquisition is completed, the company's total share capital will increase from 528 million shares to 759 million shares. It is estimated that Haowu China will increase the company's net profit by 180/250/320 million yuan in 2016-2018, and the company's total net profit in 2016-2018 will increase to 2.30/3.29/417 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.30/0.43/0.55 yuan, respectively. The profit forecast was drastically raised to maintain the target price of 15 yuan and the increase in holdings rating based on the total share capital of 759 million yuan after the acquisition was completed. We forecast that the 2016-2018 EPS would be 0.30/0.43/0.55 yuan (0.09/0.13/0.16 yuan before the acquisition of all shares of Good House), giving the company a target price of 15 yuan for the next six months, corresponding to the 50X price-earnings ratio for 2016 after the acquisition. We will adjust the ratings after the company resumes trading, and currently maintain the increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, and the growth rate of consumer demand is lower than expected.

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