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【兴业证券】优德精密:优秀的精密模具零部件制造商

興業證券 ·  Sep 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Company is an enterprise specializing in R&D, manufacturing and sales of precision mold parts, automation equipment parts and medical device parts. The company is committed to becoming a world-class professional manufacturer integrating precision mold parts series, and its customers are all over the major domestic vehicle manufacturers. At the same time, the company actively lays out the automation equipment parts and medical device parts business, which is expected to ignite new growth points. The company's production capacity remains high, and its main business is developing steadily. The operating rate of the company's key equipment remains above 90%, the production and sales rate remains above 97%, and products have been in short supply for a long time. The company's revenue for the first half of 2016 was 164.2192 million yuan, an increase of 14.94%% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 19.8526 million yuan, an increase of 7.85% over the previous year, and the main business development can be expected. The demand for molds in China's automobile market exceeds 20 billion yuan, and stable downstream demand drives the continuous development of the mold industry. The mold industry has the characteristics of strong fundamentals, wide coverage, many categories, strong technology, and high motivation. Demand for molds is mainly from downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, IT, medical devices, etc. Since the downstream industry is widely distributed and mostly consumer goods and necessities, consumer demand in the downstream industry has maintained steady growth due to factors such as economic development, technological progress, diversification of product functions, and consumer preferences for terminal products, which in turn promotes the growth of the mold industry. Profit forecast and valuation: Based on the share capital after issuance, we predict that the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.77, 0.94, and 1.18 yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 15.95%, 22.79%, and 25.85%, respectively. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, and considering the future demand for the company's products and the company's competitiveness, we think it is more reasonable to give the company 25 to 35 times PE in 2016, with a corresponding reasonable stock price of 19.25 to 26.95 yuan. Risk warning: the risk of increased competition in the mold parts market; new business expansion falls short of expectations.

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