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【华泰证券】福成股份:成长性对标新奥,区域独家+量价齐升

華泰證券 ·  Sep 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Xinao Energy is one of the largest gas distributors in China, with a compound revenue growth rate of 42% in the 15 years since listing. Xinao Energy is currently one of the largest gas distributors in China. Currently, the number of projects in China has reached 152, covering a connected population of 71.54 million. Xinao Energy was listed in Hong Kong in 2001. The revenue scale for that year was 240 million yuan. By 2015, Xinao's revenue had risen to 32.124 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 42% from 2001 to 2015. The number of projects it manages increased from 5 when it was launched in 2001 to 152 in 2015, and the scope of business was also expanded from the initial residential gas to industrial and commercial gas and transportation gas. The logic of expansion of gas distributors: the volume and price of utilities naturally rise in the framework of regional monopolies. Before 2000, urban gas distribution in China was mainly monopolized by state-owned enterprises and was a welfare business operated by local governments. Xinao Energy is one of the private enterprises that have entered the industry in a market-based manner. Xinao Energy's expansion strategy is to continuously develop surrounding urban markets along major natural gas pipelines, and increase the coverage area of the gas business by participating in tenders, alliances, and mergers and acquisitions of government organizations. On the one hand, since the gas distribution industry has utility attributes and a good competitive pattern brought about by natural regional monopoly, Xinao can exclusively enjoy the increase in local gas consumption after obtaining management rights. On the other hand, the increase in the share of industrial and commercial gas and transportation gas, which is less regulated and has a higher sales price compared to household gas consumption, has brought about an increase in the unit sales price of Xinao Energy Gas. Graveyard services are similar in nature to gas distribution, and development opportunities for integrators are just beginning. The graveyard services currently provided by Fucheng Co., Ltd. are very similar to the gas distribution industry in 2000. Judging from the historical development of the industry, both have been dominated by the public sector in the past. As local welfare undertakings, the level of participation of the private sector was very low. In terms of industry attributes, due to the nature of utilities, there is a natural monopoly in the region. Local gas distribution and operation rights and licenses for operating cemeteries are scarce, so it is very unlikely that new entrants will cause the competition pattern to deteriorate. Judging from the way the industry expands, both need to use project mergers and acquisitions and alliances to expand the scope of business coverage. The direction of expansion of cemetery services is commercial cemeteries, and investors are overly concerned about reliance on local government approval. Graveyard services are currently divided into public service cemeteries, which are invested and operated by the government due to their public welfare nature, while the latter are owned and managed by the private sector. The future direction of integration of Fucheng Co., Ltd. is operational cemeteries with clear private ownership. Currently, there are 1,900+ operating cemeteries nationwide. The integration of such cemetery assets is a market act, and there is no high dependence on local government approval. A good competitive pattern brings stable returns and a sustainable growth model. As the only A-share listed company engaged in graveyard services, Fucheng Co., Ltd. is expected to use the listed company platform to integrate the domestic operating cemetery industry, which currently has a very low concentration of concentration. The current balance ratio of 23.87% of Fucheng shares and the 62.33% shareholding ratio of the majority shareholders and their co-actors also provide more diversified means and more space for epitaxial acquisitions. According to our profit forecast, the EPS of Fucheng Co., Ltd. in 2016 to 2018 was 0.23 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.32 yuan, respectively. Using the segmented valuation method, Fucheng shares were given a target market value range of 12 to 13 billion yuan for 6 months, corresponding to the target price range of 14.66 to 15.88 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Funeral industry regulations have been strengthened, and the direction of marketization has been reversed; food safety issues.

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