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【银河证券】福鞍股份:轨道交通、电力设备大型铸件民企龙头未来将加快转型升级

銀河證券 ·  Sep 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Mainly engaged in large-scale steel castings for rail transit and power equipment; castings such as rail transit account for more than half of the performance. The company mainly engages in large-scale steel castings supporting major technical equipment. The performance mainly comes from rail transit castings and power equipment castings. In 2015, the company's other castings (mainly rail transit) accounted for 50% of revenue and 63% of profit; power equipment castings accounted for 47% of revenue and 32% of profit. Rail transit castings are supplied to famous multinational enterprises such as GE in the US. The company with strong development capabilities has independently designed the casting process for heavy high-horsepower internal combustion locomotive bogies. Since 2013, the annual output has accounted for more than 50% of GET's total global purchase orders, making it the only company among GE's hundreds of suppliers that has won the “Emerging Rapid Growth Award”, “Best Supplier Award” and “Best Quality Award” for 3 consecutive years. After the company's IPO investment project, production capacity was effectively increased; at the same time, the company signed a long-term supply agreement with GE Rail Transit Department, which enabled the company to effectively absorb the additional rail transit bogie production capacity. Thermal power castings benefited from thermal power upgrades. Hydropower castings were tested by the Three Gorges Project, and the company's ultra-supercritical heat-resistant steel complex large castings and high-grade castings of heat-resistant steel cylinder blocks and valve bodies for large steam turbines were steadily increased, making it possible to replace imports by casting instead of forging and replacing imports. We independently design and develop heavy-duty gas turbine compression cylinders and turbine cylinders, and have become a key supplier to GE Energy. The state's industrial policy of shutting down small thermal power and encouraging high-power and high-efficiency thermal power will promote the demand of downstream OEMs for supporting castings for high-power thermal power, which will benefit the company. In terms of hydropower products, the company has provided the Three Gorges Corporation with a large number of reliable hydropower rotor products over the years, becoming the only private enterprise certified by the Three Gorges Commission of the State Council. According to the “12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” prepared by the State Council, China's hydropower installed capacity will reach at least 420 million kilowatts by 2020, and the company's future hydropower equipment castings market space is still very broad. Non-public offering: The capital raised is 500 million yuan, which has already received feedback; in the future, the transformation and upgrading will be accelerated. This offering plans to raise no more than 500 million yuan in capital. The main purpose is to achieve product upgrades and improve product structure. The main fund-raising projects are intelligent manufacturing and processing projects for key components of major energy equipment. The compound growth rate after non-performance is expected to exceed 30% in 2016-2018, and the EPS is 0.30/0.39/0.51 yuan. The company has a small market capitalization, and will accelerate transformation and upgrading in the future, covering “careful recommendation” for the first time. Risk Warning: The risks, transformation and upgrading of GE's major customers in rail transit are lower than expected

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