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【西南证券】广济药业:大金产业园停产检修,VB2或迎来新一轮涨价

西南證券 ·  Aug 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced that the Vitamin B2 production line in Daikin Industrial Park will be discontinued for maintenance from September 1, 2016 to October 10, 2016. Vitamin B2 may rise in price, and the company will unleash its flexibility in performance. The company is the largest VB2 producer in China, with a production capacity of 4,800 tons (2,300 tons in the headquarters plus 2,500 tons in Mengzhou), accounting for about 55% of the world. VB2's global production capacity is concentrated, and the company has certain pricing rights. There is plenty of momentum for subsequent price increases: 1) The production capacity of the Wuxue headquarters for vitamin B2 has been moved to Daikin Industrial Park, and the operating rate decreased throughout the year after production was stopped. 2) The demand side is less sensitive to price increases: Currently, the main application of VB2 is in the feed field, accounting for about 70%, the cost in feed accounting for about 1%, and the sensitivity to price increases is low. 3) Under the trend of stricter environmental protection, overseas competitors' vitamin production costs have increased significantly, and there is an incentive to maintain price alliances. 4) According to our sensitivity tests, in 2017, if the company's VB2 price increases by 5%, it will increase the company's EPS by 0.14 yuan (about 34 million yuan). Changtou Group's promises are gradually being fulfilled, and expectations for reform of state-owned enterprises are strong. After the majority shareholder changed to Hubei Changjiang Investment Group, there were many positive changes in the company's fundamentals: 1) Reversing losses in the past few years and promised “positive net profit for 2015-2017”; the positive effects of the entry of Long Term Investment on the company's marketing and management are gradually showing. 2) Long-term investment also promised to fully support the company's development plans and goals, actively invest in the development and expansion of the company's existing business and products, with strong expectations for future asset injection. 3) As an important platform for listed companies under Hubei, it is expected to reform state-owned enterprises. Profit forecasting and investment advice. Considering the impact of the non-public offering not going smoothly, the EPS is expected to be 0.63 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.85 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 34 times, 29 times, and 25 times, respectively. Considering the company's basic orientation and strong expectations for state-owned enterprise reform, the “buy” rating is maintained. Risk warning: State-owned enterprise reforms may fall short of expectations, and product price increases may fall short of expectations.

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