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【华创证券】辽宁成大:估值触底主业回升,沉舟侧畔再竞千帆

華創證券 ·  Aug 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

1. The transformation starts again, and the inflection point may have arrived. Starting from commercial and trade business, Liaoning Chengda has formed the current diversified business pattern, including finance, medicine, retail, energy development, trade, etc. Several subsidiaries under Chengda all have strong competitiveness in their segments, eliminating the setbacks in oil shale projects. In 2015, Chengda Hongsheng's financial report was recompiled at fair value based on the assumption of unsustainable operations, resulting in a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the consolidated statement. We believe that the losses of the oil shale project have been fully absorbed from both the financial report level and the market expectations level. At present, the company has adjusted its strategy in a timely manner to invest in the relatively steady and familiar financial services sector, and fundamentals are expected to bottom out and rebound. 2. The current market value implies a 50% discount on GF's valuation market price. Currently, the company has a market value of 26 billion yuan. Assuming that after the additional issuance is completed, the share capital will expand to 1.85 billion shares, with a potential total market value of 32 billion yuan. The corresponding 2016 PE and PB are 19 times and 1.4 times, respectively. The corresponding market value of the shares held by GF Securities is about 20.5 billion yuan. The market value of Chengda Biotech in the new third board is 7 billion yuan, Chengda Fangyuan is valued at 2.8 billion yuan based on double PS, China United Holdings is valued at 8.2 billion yuan based on the auction price, and energy development is valued at 1.2 billion yuan based on the book equity of Baoming in Xinjiang, for a total of 36.8 billion yuan, corresponding to a price of 19.9 yuan per share. If the oil shale business is valued based on an investment of 6 billion yuan, then the company's valuation per share can reach 22 yuan or more. The current market value corresponds to holding a 50% discount on the market value of Guangfa. 3. Investment advice: We expect the net profit of Liaoning Chengda in 2016-2017 to be 1.64 billion yuan and 2.114 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 29%. The main assumptions are that the net profit of Guangfa Securities will increase by 20%, China United Holdings will increase 25%, Chengda Biotech will grow 13%, and Chengda Fangyuan will increase by 10%. Commerce and trade will achieve a profit of 100 million yuan due to stable commodity prices, and Baoming in Xinjiang will begin to balance profits of 100 million yuan due to rising oil prices. The EPS after considering additional distribution is 0.89 and 1.14 yuan, the corresponding 2016 PE is 16 times, and PE after considering increased distribution and dilution is 20 times, which has a high margin of safety. If oil prices rise, it will bring greater flexibility to the company's performance. 4. Risk warning: The progress of the increase is lower than expected, and oil prices continue to be sluggish.

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