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【申万宏源】南天信息:治理与经营均在反转(Fintech 系列深度之三)

申萬宏源 ·  Jul 15, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The company's development strategy tends to focus after going through 4 stages. The 2013-2015 strategy focused on financial IT and entered a period of business growth. The landmark event in the software business is the case of the Postbank where “a small computer replaced a mainframe banking system based on an open platform and cloud computing technology”. It supports the operation of 39,000 postal bank branches nationwide, and the market is familiar with it. The Postbank is just the beginning. ICBC, the Agricultural Bank, the Bank of China, CCB, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank Historical marginalization can be confirmed by the development history of other high-quality financial IT companies. Investors are puzzled that Nantian Information's historical strategy has overlooked pharmaceuticals and the development process of IT products from IT product expansion to IT services and development of IT products. As for the first doubt: it is not uncommon for financial IT companies to be distracted when demand fluctuates in their fields. High-quality financial IT companies Hang Seng Electronics, Financial Securities Co., Ltd., New World, and Xinyada have all deviated from their main business. Regarding the second concern: Nantian Information is facing a situation similar to Taiji Co., Ltd., that is, IT services derived from IT products have increased business stickiness, so they are trying to return to products after the local IT sales environment has warmed up. The fixed increase optimizes the equity structure, and the management team becomes more youthful. 1) In the March 2016 issuance plan, the Industrial Investment Group subscribed for 1 billion yuan, and the total direct and indirect equity ratio increased by 11 percentage points. The Industrial Investment Group led major asset restructuring and capital management projects of more than 20 state-owned enterprises, including the reorganization and listing of Yunda 120 and the integration of the cement industry in the province. 2) The plan includes a 200 million yuan employee stock ownership plan, covering directors, supervisors, and core key personnel. The scope of incentives and management subscription ratio is higher than that of Radio and Television Express and Taiji shares. 3) According to public information, the newly appointed senior management is young and promising. In the future, technology finance will be developed based on financial IT. The July 12, 2016 announcement to acquire 90% of the shares of Caracal Technology, which owns big data technology (analysis and processing of music data is the core business), the signing of a strategic cooperation with Huifu World in July 2015, and the signing of a strategic framework with the Kunming government for the development of big data, the April 2016 announcement is speculated to be a leading signal of business derivation to Fintech and intelligence. For the first time, “increased holdings” ratings and profit forecasts were covered. Confidence comes from the double reversal of governance and management. The estimated operating income of the company in 2016-2018 was 22.60, 25.39 and 2,731 billion yuan, respectively. In 2016-2018, net profit was $121 million, $52 million, and $57 million, respectively, and EPS was 0.09 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.23 yuan, respectively. On July 12, 2016, the company announced that it intends to collect 90% of Caracal's shares. The target company promised that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company achieved in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 50 million yuan, 65 million yuan, and 75 million yuan, respectively. We expect Nantian Information to have a combined profit of 72 million yuan in 2016, a combined profit of 120 million yuan for the PE 62 and 17 year tests, and a profit of 120 million yuan for the PE37 exam. The total share capital of the company's proposed non-public offering of no more than 73.62 million shares in March 2016 is 321 million shares, corresponding to 2016-2018 EPS of 0.07, 0.16 and 0.18 yuan, respectively. The current market capitalization of the company is small, and there is a double reversal in governance and management. Referring to peer companies' valuations, it is conservatively estimated that the one-year target market capitalization space is 9.6 billion yuan, the target price is 38.8 yuan, and there is room for growth of 82%. Considering that the reversal of the company's endogenous management needs further confirmation and that the acquisition of Caracal is the beginning of enrichment of the company's underlying technology, technology finance is being laid out based on financial IT development, and the secondary coverage is giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.

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