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【群益证券(香港)】加加食品:预计2016年上半年主业经营业绩录得微幅增长

羣益證券(香港) ·  Aug 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The company expects revenue for the first half of 2016 to increase 6% year on year, while net profit is expected to fall 34% year on year due to the increase in the base period due to investment income in the same period last year. We estimate net profit from the main business to increase 5% year over year. We are optimistic about the huge market brought about by consumption upgrades in the soy sauce industry. As a small but beautiful soy sauce brand, the company is currently in the process of marketing transformation. The current stock price is 58 times that of PE in 2017. The valuation is too high, so investment advice is given. The company released a performance report. It expects to achieve operating income of 962 million yuan in the first half of 2016, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 97.911,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.01%; and basic earnings per share of 0.09 yuan, a decrease of 30.77% year-on-year. The decline in net profit for the first half of the year was mainly due to a decline in gross profit and a 91.08% year-on-year decline in the company's investment income (an absolute decrease of 79.3926 million yuan). According to our estimates, if the impact of investment income is deducted, the operating profit of the main business is expected to increase by 5,225,500 yuan, and the estimated net profit after tax will increase by 3.92 million yuan, an increase of 4.8% year on year (net profit after deduction for the first half of 2015 was 81,42221 million yuan, up 2.75% year on year). Overall, the company's main business performance all recorded a slight increase, and the performance was fair. On a quarterly basis, 2Q is expected to achieve revenue of 456 million yuan, an increase of 1.33% over the previous year; net profit is expected to be 44.896 million yuan, a decrease of 53% over the previous year. According to our estimates, after deducting the impact of investment income, 2Q achieved net profit of 35.02 million yuan, an increase of 22.86% over the previous year (net profit realized after deducting non-payment in 2Q in 2015 was 28.502 million yuan). The company is mainly engaged in “Gaga” brand soy sauce, accounting for more than 50% of revenue. Judging from the industry in which it is located, the overall growth of the seasoning industry is certain, and the future prospects are promising. The gross margin of the company's major soy sauce products, “original brewing” and “fresh noodles,” is around 50%, and the 200,000 ton high-end soy sauce project was put into operation in 2015. The production capacity release period is expected to be three years. It is hoped to expand supermarket channels in first-tier and second-tier cities, but against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the company's new product promotion and production capacity release rate have been adversely affected, affecting performance growth. In addition, the company is actively developing a variety of seasonings, including vinegar, chicken essence, monosodium glutamate, sauces, common cooking oil, and high-grade tea seed oil. The company established an incentive mechanism and introduced an employee stock ownership plan. On January 6, 2016, the first phase of the employee stock ownership plan was purchased, and a total of 41.656 million shares of the company were purchased through the secondary market, with an average transaction price of 757 yuan/share. The current stock price is 7.2 yuan. The above incentive mechanism provides a good margin of safety for the current stock price. In the second half of 2015, after deduction, companies achieved net profit attributable to listed companies of 27.07 million yuan. The base period is very low, so the performance growth rate in the second half of 2016 is likely to be faster than in the first half of the year. Overall, we expect the company to achieve net profit of 134 million yuan in 2016 and 2017 (a year-on-year decrease of 8.73%, a year-on-year increase of about 24% after deduction, EPS of 0.12 yuan) and 145 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 7.53%, EPS of 0.13 yuan).

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