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【华泰证券】中化岩土:机场建设斩获大单,民航+通航双轮驱动

華泰證券 ·  Jul 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The synergy effect of winning the bid for the Meilan Airport expansion project showed that Beijing Changdao, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, recently won the bid for the Haikou Meilan International Airport Phase II expansion sub-project. The bid amount was 481 million yuan, accounting for 24.90% of the company's 2015 revenue. The estimated construction period is from July 15, 2016 to December 31, 2017. Beijing Changdao Municipal Engineering Group is a leading domestic airport runway construction company. It has presided over the construction of major projects such as the Beijing Capital International Airport expansion project, and was purchased all of its shares by the company for 70 million yuan in cash in November 2015. In 2015, Beijing Changdao achieved consolidated revenue of 193 million yuan and net profit of 14 million yuan. Winning the bid for the Meilan Airport project is the first time that Beijing Changdao has won a bid for a major airport construction project outside of Beijing, showing the remarkable synergy between the two after being acquired. The airport construction market will explode in the next five years, with an average annual investment of nearly 100 billion dollars. According to the “National Civil Airport Layout Plan 2020”, the total number of civil aviation transport airports will reach 244 by 2020, an increase of 34 over the end of 2015, with an average annual investment of about 80 billion dollars. In addition to 20 billion dollars for general aviation airport construction, the average annual investment for airport construction is about 100 billion yuan. The “2030 National Civil Transport Airport Layout Plan” requires that the 100 km area around the airport will cover the central area of all counties by 2030. By the end of 2014, the prefecture-level administrative units covered within 100 km of China's transportation airports were 87.2%, and the county-level administrative units were only 80.2%. There are still 40 prefecture-level administrative units and more than 600 counties that have not enjoyed aviation services. There is still broad market space for airport construction in the next 15 years. Benchmarking BBA, building the first domestic airport construction and operation integrated company as a pure general aviation airport target, it has the absolute advantage of extending from underground engineering to airport infrastructure construction. It actively enters the airport construction and operation business through acquisitions such as Beijing Changdao and Zhejiang Zhongqing, and targets BBA, a leading international aviation company, with the aim of building the first domestic airport construction and operation stock. The company plans to invest in the construction of 50-100 general aviation airports over the next 5 years, which can reach 10-20 billion yuan based on a single unit estimate of 200 million yuan. The net interest rate for the construction process is more than 20%, and the operating process will be about 10%, adding a total of 3 to 6 billion yuan to the company's net profit. The company plans to increase profits through asset securitization to package the early return of capital from general aviation airports, or refer to the BBA to extend to the back end of the industrial chain such as airport service operations, official commercial flights, and pilot training through acquisitions and new installations. There is plenty of room for imagination. Engineering services are growing steadily, and investing in media to cultivate new growth points. In 2011-2015, the company's revenue rose from 264 million yuan to 1,931 million yuan, a CAGR of 64%; net profit to mother rose from 50 million yuan to 227 million yuan, or 46% CAGR. Strong mergers and acquisitions in 2014 and Yuanfang contributed net profit of 66.57 million yuan and 64.65 million yuan respectively last year. The concentration of the geotechnical engineering industry is low, and the company's market share as a leading enterprise is still less than 1%. In the future, it is not ruled out that large-scale effects will continue to increase profit margins through mergers and acquisitions. Investing in Kyushu in 2015 confirmed an investment income of 1,868,500 yuan, and this year it is expected to significantly benefit from the release of “Sea Animal Husbandry in the Cloud”. The first target price is 10 yuan, and the company maintaining the “buy” rating is estimated to have a profit of 345 million yuan in the main geotechnical engineering business and 25 million yuan. The combined total market value of the two is 165-18.4 billion yuan. The reasonable secondary market price range is 9.46-10.52 yuan (corresponding to 33-38 times PE in 17 years), and the first target price is 10 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: General aviation business expansion falls short of expectations; consolidated acquisitions in the geotechnical industry fall short of expectations; accounts receivable cannot be recovered risk.

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