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【中信建投证券】帝龙新材:美生元5月顺利过户,2016H1业绩预告大幅提升

中信建投證券 ·  Jun 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Meishengyuan transferred accounts in May, and net profit returned to mother for the half year is expected to increase 150%-180%. The company recently issued 290 million shares at a price of 999 yuan/share and paid 510 million yuan. The transfer of 100% of the shares of Suzhou Meishengyuan Information Technology Co., Ltd. was completed on May 13. Due to the steady operation of the company itself and the fact that Meishengyuan will be included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements in May, the year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was revised from 10%-40% to 150%-180%, and the net profit range was revised from 458.777 million to 58.391 million yuan to 116.782 million yuan. Meishengyuan's strong strength has become the new driver for Dilong New Materials's performance. (1) The company is a leader in the mobile stand-alone game industry. In 2015, Meishengyuan accounted for about 1.05% of China's mobile game market share and 4.86% of China's mobile stand-alone game market share, making it a leader in the domestic mobile game industry. (2) In terms of distribution business, channel resources are becoming more and more abundant, and they are entering online game distribution. From January to September 2015, 175 channel providers and 416 SP service providers established business partnerships with Meishengyuan. Throughout the year, Meishengyuan collaborated with more than 100 channel providers to distribute more than 80 mobile stand-alone games. Furthermore, the company has begun to set up a joint operation business for mobile online games, and has jointly operated “Battle Through the Sky” with Beijing Yiyou Network Technology Co., Ltd. to enter the mobile online game distribution business. (3) The game research and development business continues to be consolidated. In terms of R&D business, the company's stand-alone game products are positioned as the medium to light casual game type that currently has the largest audience, and has independently developed a series of boutique mobile games. Among them, in 2014, the company's mobile game product “Happy Baby Rush Forward” won the “Best IP Adaptation Award” from the mobile operator; Pig Man's Ultimate Battle won the 2015 Jinling Award: Wan Family's Favorite Mobile Standalone Game, the Golden Globe Award jointly awarded by Game Daily and Yupinkai, and the top ten casual stand-alone mobile games hosted by the Golden Entertainment Awards in 2015. (4) Abundant IP reserves. Meishengyuan plans to build a vertical IP ecosystem starting from the source of IP, starting with literature and animation. The company has strong IP support including Happy Baby, Ghost Blow, Pig Man, and Shining Dad. The mobile game industry is growing rapidly. In terms of broad market size, the compound annual growth rate of mobile game revenue from 2008 to 2015 reached 130.25%, and the market size increased 87.2% year on year to 51.46 billion yuan in 2015, which is much higher than that of PC client games (PC games) and PC browser games (page games); in terms of market share, the share of mobile game revenue in the entire game industry increased from 0.87% in 2008 to 38.24% in 2015. According to iResearch's forecast, the growth rate of China's mobile game market will remain within the range of 20%-35% between 2016 and 2018. Among them, the market size of mobile stand-alone games was 9.114 billion yuan in 2015, and the scale is expected to expand to around 15 billion yuan in 2016. Investment advice: Meishengyuan's performance commitment: The net profit scales for 2015-2017 are: 1.8, 3.2, and 468 million, respectively. Based on the drastic revisions in the interim report, we think the probability of achieving the promise in 2016 is high. We assume that Dilong's original decorative materials business had net profit of 85.8 million yuan in 2015. We assume that the net profit amounts achieved in 2016 and 2017 were 1.03 and 120 million yuan respectively. After the consolidated statement, the net profit for the 2016 to 2017 exam preparation was 4.23 million and 588 million yuan respectively; corresponding exclusions After that, the total share capital was 852 million shares (including issuing shares to purchase assets and raising supporting capital), EPS was 0.50 and 0.69, respectively, 27 and 19 times, respectively. The total market value was 11.3 billion (corresponding to 852 million share capital), maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk factors: Performance promises have not been fulfilled due to the slowdown in mobile game growth and fierce competition.

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