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【广发证券】建新矿业:三项叠加,快速成长

廣發證券 ·  Jul 21, 2016 01:00  · Researches

Core view: High gross profit accompanies the recovery of the industry, low cost and production growth. The company's high-grade lead-zinc pyrite (21.23%) has brought high gross profit of 45.6%, and the recovery of the industry (54% increase in zinc prices since the beginning of the year) will surely cause another increase in gross profit. Considering that the company expanded production by 60% in 2015 and gradually reached production, and that the group also promised to inject mining assets in the future, we believe that the company will soon enter a fast growth path and buy ratings in the future. Gross profit was close to 50%, and production increased by 60%. The company's main asset is polymetallic lead-zinc mines. Even with last year's sluggish metal prices, the average gross profit was 45.6%. In terms of production capacity and output, the company began harvesting 1.65 million tons in 2014, and a new 1 million ton selection plant was built and put into operation in June 2015 (production capacity increased by 60%). The total production in 2015 was 1.8 million tons. We expect that from 2016 to 2018, the company's procurement scale will reach 2.3 million tons, 2.5 million tons, and 2.65 million tons. The amount of metals is about 2016:94,000 tons of zinc, 10,000 tons of lead, 2017:103,000 tons of zinc and 11,000 tons of lead, and 2018:113,000 tons of zinc and 12,000 tons of lead. Zinc prices have risen 54.3% since the beginning of the year, and it is expected that the upward trend will still be seen globally. Production cuts or closures of major international mines (Glencore cut production by 500,000 tons, Century Mine closed, 400,000 tons, etc.) will affect global supply by about 12%. There are currently no large enough mines to make up the gap. In terms of demand, zinc consumption is better than expected. Considering the obvious decline in global inventories, we believe zinc prices will continue to rise. The Group's assets are yet to be injected. Jianxin Mining Group is a company that mainly focuses on the mining industry and has diversified development. In addition to the assets of listed companies, the Group also has mining assets such as Xinzhou Mining, Zhongxi Mining, Shanxi Jinde Chengxin Mining, and Urad Houqi Obragg Copper Mine Co., Ltd. According to the company's promises at the time of restructuring and listing, it is expected that these mining assets will gradually be injected into listed companies. Net profit increased by 63 million yuan for every 1,000 yuan increase in zinc prices. The buying rating assumes that the price of lead does not change, and for every 1,000 yuan increase in zinc prices, the company's net profit increases by 63 million yuan. With zinc prices rising steadily from 2016 to 2018, it is expected that the company's EPS will be 0.36, 0.52, 0.60, and PE will be 27.48, 19.29, and 16.57. In addition, it is given a “buy” rating based on the group company's multiple mining assets and growth brought about by promised injections. Risks indicate the impact of changes in the global economy and the economic situation in China on commodity prices.

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