Main points of investment
Event: the company released semi-annual report KuaiBao. The net profit of shareholders in the first half of the year was 7700-85 million yuan, an increase of 181.5% over the same period last year. 210.7%.
The antibiotic industry has bottomed out and the traditional main business is expected to pick up. After the "limited resistance" in 2011, the sales of anti-infective drugs in domestic public hospitals began to rebound sharply in 2014, accounting for 21.7%, once again becoming the first drug use field in public hospitals. We believe that with a large population base and a large demand for antibiotic drugs, it is difficult for the market scale to decline in a broken layer, and the antibiotic market will gradually stabilize in the future. Taking into account the factors of Tian Heng and Chu only, and combined with the market development of some of the company's new market competitive products, such as oxiracetam, we expect the company's traditional main business to achieve 100% growth in the first half of the year.
Tianheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. has a number of specialist drug varieties, and its performance is more likely than expected. Ondansetron, granisetron, Toremifene and doxophylline are the company's main specialist drug products. Data from the sample hospital show that these four products have an obvious market position, with granisetron accounting for more than 60% of the total market share. Toremifen is the only domestic variety in China, and import substitution can be realized under a new round of bidding. Doxophylline is one of the only four approvals in China and is expected to become a new bright spot for the company's growth. The committed performance of Tianheng from 2016 to 2017 is 50 million and 60 million. We believe that Toremifene and doxophylline are highly competitive. With the continuous progress of the bidding work, the performance of Tianheng Pharmaceutical Industry in 16-17 is expected to reach 60 million and 70 million yuan, respectively.
Only Chu gentamicin from export to domestic sales, performance improvement space. Only Chu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is one of the largest manufacturers of gentamicin raw materials in China, and its market share has been in the top five positions in the market. As the domestic sales price of this variety is about 30% higher than the export price, in recent years, only Chu Pharmaceutical has actively adjusted its sales structure and expanded the proportion of domestic sales. From 2013 to 2015, the proportion of exports gradually decreased from 43% to about 23%. This is the main reason for the rapid growth of Chu Pharmaceutical Industry in the past three years. The company's committed performance from 2016 to 2017 is 100 million yuan and 120 million yuan respectively. We believe that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the proportion of domestic sales of gentamicin products in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Considering the performance of Tianheng and Jichu, it is estimated that the diluted EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.53,0.80,1.07 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 40 times, 27 times and 20 times respectively. We believe that the recovery of the antibiotic market has brought new development opportunities to the company's traditional main business, and the API and preparations of many products are expected to double; the active epitaxial acquisition strategy has also led to a rapid increase in the company's performance, and the company will enter the track of rapid development and upgrade its rating to "Buy" in the future.
Risk hints: risks such as limited resistance policy, drug bidding and price reduction, achievement or undercommitment of M & An enterprises, etc.
