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【国海证券】天业股份深度报告:多元战略布局初形成,业绩有望迎来拐点

國海證券 ·  Jun 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The transformation and upgrading strategy is beginning to take shape, and M&A funds and industrial venture capital are building a new ecosystem. The company has successively acquired Tianye Microfinance and Bosheng Leasing through mergers and acquisitions funds, and recently increased capital in Wanhe Leasing, rapidly accumulating financial and Internet resources. Furthermore, the company announced a fixed increase plan in December 2015, and plans to raise no more than 3.2 billion yuan in capital for Tianye Microfinance, Bosch Leasing, and community finance Internet integrated service platform construction projects; the venture capital sector is expected to achieve high capital appreciation through participation in registration networks and 360 privatization projects. Benefiting from the bottom up in gold prices, the optimization of the industrial chain structure greatly increased the performance of the mining industry in 2016. Influenced by Brexit and uncertain expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, gold has become the best-performing commodity this year. The company holds 1.67 million ounces of gold in the Mingalle mining area in Australia. The company continues to optimize the selection and sales links in the industrial chain. Cost improvements and efficiency improvements combined with the continued rise in gold prices will lead to breakthroughs in the company's mining business. The target mineral rights performance promises for 2016-2017 were 171,412 million yuan and 134.13 million yuan, respectively, further safeguarding the company's mining business income. The traditional real estate business is seeking a breakthrough, entering Shenzhen and opening a new path of layout. Since the company formulated a first-tier city plan in 2015, the company has initially completed the regional expansion platform and successfully entered Shenzhen through cooperative development through the establishment of Shenzhen Tianying Hengji, and joined hands with Cinda to participate in the subscription of real estate mergers and acquisitions funds. Furthermore, the company's Tianye Longaotian Street project in Jinan will enter large-scale settlement in 2016, and the total value of projects in the province is close to 1.5 billion yuan. The total value of the annual project value in the province is close to 1.5 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the real estate settlement revenue in 2016 will exceed 900 million yuan. Valuation analysis: Considering that the current fixed increase in financial business has not yet been completed, based on prudential principles, we will not consider the impact of additional issuance on the company's performance. It is estimated that in 2016-2018, the company will achieve net profit of 167 million yuan, 182 million yuan and 207 million yuan respectively. EPS is 0.19 yuan, 0.21 yuan and 0.23 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE is 63 times, 58 times and 50.8 times respectively, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: First-tier city expansion falls short of expectations, Internet finance and financial leasing industry policy risks, 360's return to A shares falls short of expectations, risk of fixed growth failure, risk of overseas business development, risk of related projects not progressing as expected, risk of fluctuations in gold prices, etc.

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