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【西南证券】海王生物:进军质子医疗,A股高精尖医疗设备稀缺标的

西南證券 ·  May 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: A few days ago, the company announced: 1) The company plans to invest in the establishment of Shenzhen Haiwang Pharmaceutical Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd. and the Haiwang Pharmaceutical Consistency Evaluation Research Center on the basis of the existing R&D division, and plans to reserve no more than 20% of the shares in the research institute company for incentives; 2) The company plans to establish sub-Hairong International with Haiwang Huitong, and then purchase 970,000 shares of the US Provisioning Group for 25 million US dollars, accounting for no more than 10%. Hairong International and ProvisionAsia will jointly establish a joint venture subsidiary in China, accounting for 51% and 49% of the shares, respectively. The joint venture will be Provision's exclusive distributor of proton therapy systems in China, and will have exclusive rights to develop proton centers or oncology centers in China. Activate the R&D system and share the dividends of consistent evaluation policies. The research institute company will transform the company's R&D platform from a cost center into a profitability creation center in accordance with the full-cost marketization model. Set aside 20% of the shares for executive incentives and talent introduction, which will help stimulate the enthusiasm and ownership of the R&D team and activate the R&D system. The establishment of a consistency evaluation center is expected to share policy dividends, enhance the profitability of research institutes while serving the development of the Quandrug Network GPO procurement model. Entering proton medicine, A-share high-precision medical equipment is scarce. Proton therapy is the top technology in radiation therapy, and its excellent performance has won high recognition from the medical community. Currently, there are about 70 proton centers around the world; in China, only Shanghai Proton Heavy Ion Hospital and Shandong Zibo Wanjie Cancer Hospital are the only ones. ProNova, a subsidiary of the company, uses patented superconducting technology to produce compact proton therapy devices, and the products are being approved and registered by the FDA. According to public information, although ProNova is a rising star in the proton field, its technology is outstanding. Not only is the proton holder the lightest in weight, but the sales price and construction cost of proton equipment are also about 50% lower than traditional proton equipment. In addition to equipment manufacturing, Provision also has a comprehensive cancer diagnosis and treatment center, which has become one of the world's premier cancer treatment centers and can provide a full range of solutions for cancer treatment. In July 2015, the Health Planning Commission changed proton and heavy ion accelerator radiation therapy technology from an approval system to a filing system. According to statistics from the 21st Century Economic Report, more than 40 hospitals in China have applied for the construction of proton therapy centers. According to 1.5 billion yuan per set of estimates, that is, the domestic proton market space has reached 60 billion yuan. We believe that the company is expected to share the domestic market through joint ventures, and the company is a scarce target for A-share high-precision proton therapy. Valuation and ratings: We expect the company's diluted EPS for 2016-2018 to be 0.39 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.82 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 50 times, 33 times, and 23 times, respectively. Considering the scarcity of the company's proton medicine, rapid performance growth, and strong expandability of the GPO business model, it maintains an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Shenzhen model promotion falls short of expectations, risk of accumulated accounts receivable and risk of extended expansion falling short of expectations, and risk of compact proton therapy systems being approved and sold or falling short of expectations.

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